Top 12 Indian banks – including HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, and Punjab National Bank - are expected to cumulatively reduce their dividend payment by 4.2 percent to $5.98 billion in the current financial year, as profitability seems to be coming under pressure amid slowing loan growth, a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence has said.
This comes after the banks distributed dividend worth $6.24 billion in FY25, an increase of 15.3 percent over previous fiscal.
HDFC Bank's dividend per share is projected to fall to Rs 8.25 in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, from Rs 11 in the previous year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s estimates. Bank of Baroda may cut its dividend to Rs 7.90 per share from Rs 8.35, and Canara Bank may cut it to Rs 3.90 per share from Rs 4, while Punjab National Bank may reduce it to Rs 2.60 per share from Rs 2.90.
State Bank of India may keep its dividend per share nearly unchanged at Rs 16 compared with Rs 15.90 last fiscal, while ICICI Bank may raise it to Rs 12 in fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, from Rs 11, the report said.
The expected decline in dividend payouts is rooted in a ‘confluence of margin and profitability headwinds’, said Tusharika Aggarwal, equity analyst at Market Intelligence.
The profitability of banks is expected to be dampened this year by trade-related uncertainties amid US tariffs. President Trump has imposed an effective 50 percent tariff on Indian goods in total, the highest among major global economies.
As part of a broader indirect tax reform, the government has cut the Goods and Services Tax on most items, seeking to simplify the complex tax structure and boost domestic consumption.
Indian banks have reported robust net profit in the year ended March 31, 2025, supported by double-digit credit demand. Loan books of the six largest banks expanded by an average of 11.3 percent, with Net income at State Bank of India – country’s largest lender by assets - rose 16.1 percent to Rs 70,901 crore, while top private lender HDFC Bank posted a 10.7 percent increase in net income.
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