In any state’s history, five years can eventually appear as a speck in the continuum of time. Yet, it is sometimes useful to slice out certain periods to evaluate changes that may or may not have taken place during those years.
Seen through this prism, 2021, when the Assembly elections are being held, is an appropriate year to take stock of Assam’s advancement over the last five years in a range of spheres.
In many ways, policymaking is akin to solving a constrained optimisation problem. This broadly characterises the task of hammering out the best or optimal set of solutions given an array of challenges or constraints.
Elegant as this may appear as a theoretical construct, in the real world, working out solutions for myriad problems can be subject to contradictory pulls from multiple fronts. This is particularly relevant for a state such as Assam where the most promising way out for one set of challenges could impair prospects somewhere else.
For instance, no one can refute that building roads, highways, and other physical infrastructure can create jobs and enhance income levels. Investment in such projects have a strong a positive multiplier effect.
According to some estimates, the roads and infrastructure sector can potentially create 2.7 new jobs indirectly for every Rs 1 lakh invested, with major forward linkages to sectors such as real estate, and manufacturing and backward linkages to steel and cement among others.
But how do you build roads in a state where floods inundate thousands of acres of land every year? This is one constraint that successive generations of policymakers have been battling to solve.
Roads and highways are essential for creating connectivity. The quality and accessibility of infrastructure often stands out as the first marker in assessing a region’s state of progress. More so in the countryside. All-weather blacktop bitumen roads are a critical necessary condition for bringing markets closer to villages and help farmers get a better price for their produce.
Statistics Tell The Story
How has Assam fared on this front in the last four years? Let us examine a few statistics as seen in the performance of the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY).
The primary objective of the PMGSY is to provide connectivity, by way of an all-weather road (with necessary culverts and cross-drainage structures, which is operable throughout the year), to the eligible unconnected habitations in the rural areas with a population of 500 persons and above.
According to central government data, 929 kilometres of roads were built under the PMGSY in Assam in 2016-17. The pace of implementation nearly doubled in the following year with 1,618.63 kilometres of rural roads built under the scheme in 2017-18. Projects picked pace even more rapidly in the subsequent year, with 4295.49 kilometres of PMGSY roads built in the state in 2018-19, nearly triple the length achieved during the previous year. The speed dropped off in 2019-20 when 3646.73 kilometres of rural roads were built.
These roads have come about even when the state has been battered by floods each of these years, demonstrating that a workaround to deal with natural calamities is possible for roads and infrastructure projects.
How has been the record of national highway construction in the last four years? The state added 302 kilometres, 323 kilometres and 203 kilometres of national highways in 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20, respectively.
In fact, for the northeast region, the pace of highway projects has seen a sharp spike since 2014. From 0.6 kilometres of national highways built per day during 2009-14, road construction touched an all-time high of 1.5 kilometres per day between 2014 and March 2019.
Together, different central government agencies, including the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) and the Border Roads Organisation (BRO), which falls under the defence ministry, have built 2,731 km of national highways across the eight northeastern states between 2014 and 2019.
As against this, 1,079.25 kilometres of roads were built between 2009 and 2014. More than a third- or 1,011-kilometres of the 2,731 kilometres of highway constructed in the region between 2014 and 2019 were in Assam.
The Infra Signals
Infrastructure, particularly roads and highways, is a key determinant of a state’s export competitiveness. For any farmer, the road to the nearest market is the first port of call to reach out to the rest of the world.
To that extent, the value of all-weather village roads and express ways that connect rural mandis, can never be overemphasised. The farmer should be able to inexpensively, and quickly, carry the produce to nearest mandi from which lorries should be able to quickly transport these into cities, and, subsequently to the global market through ports and airports.
There is some clear evidence of this sequence playing out in Assam. In May this year, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal claimed that the state had exported agricultural products worth Rs 357 crore. These consignments moved out in April-May, when the country was in the middle of one of the most stringent lockdowns imposed to contain the spread of Covid-19.
Among other products, farmers in Assam exported pumpkins to Dubai. According to government figures, until early June, farmers from the state had exported 182 tonnes of vegetables and fruits to different countries from the Guwahati Airport.
A cargo terminal at the Guwahati airport equipped with a 50-tonne warehouse for agricultural products have helped matters. A dedicated cargo waterway on the Brahmaputra connecting Pandu in Guwahati to Bay of Bengal is now fully operational, which opens the global market for Assam’s farm produce.
Desperate For Answers
While these are encouraging signs, it is important to not lose sight of the larger picture. Assam continues to remain confined in the bottommost rungs among states in export competitiveness and preparedness.
Assam is ranked 28 among 36 states and union territories in the Niti Aayog’s export preparedness index. Assam has a score of 22.81 in export preparedness compared to Gujarat’s 75.19 that tops the ranks.
In fact, Assam ranks behind Chandigarh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, West Bengal, and Meghalaya in export preparedness.
As the Niti Aayog report points out, trade remains an evergreen engine of growth for countries. What is true of nations, is also true of states of subcontinental-sized country such as India.
The export of pumpkins and other fruits vegetables during the lockdown maybe a good proof of concept, but Assam still has a long distance to traverse to turn into vibrant export-driven hub. Regardless of whichever party comes to power in the incoming government will have to quickly frame and implement focussed agri-export policies and adopt efficient technology-led intermediation to link up the state’s small and marginal farmers to national and global markets in a scalable model.
Gaurav Choudhury is consultant editor, Moneycontrol.
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