Rajasthan Elections 2023: Will the focus on getting caste arithmetic right pay off?

Hindus account for 89 percent, Muslims 9 percent and other religious groups 2 percent in Rajasthan. Around 48 percent to 50 percent of the state population comprises OBCs, 18 percent SC, 13 percent ST and 18 percent to 20 percent upper caste or general category.

The influential groups are Jats (10-12 percent), Rajputs (8-9 percent), Brahmins, Gujjars and Meenas (6-7 percent) each. 1/3rd to half of the Muslim community are believed to be OBCs. The five influential groups together with Muslims accounted for half of house strength in 2018.

Dominant Communities Corner Tickets

Jats and Rajputs are traditional rivals for supremacy in the state. There is also intense tussle between Meenas (ST) and Gujjars (MBC) as the latter have been demanding inclusion in ST category.

It is said that Jats and Rajputs do not vote together and Gujjars and Meenas as well. There are 33 SC-reserved seats and 25 for STs. Meenas can influence the outcome of 26 seats, Jats 35 seats, Gujjars 40 seats, and Muslims 21 seats as per TOI dashboard.

BJP has traditionally been popular among traders, Rajputs (from Swatantra Party days) and OBCs, whereas Congress among Brahmins, Jats, Muslim, Gujjars, SC and ST community. But due to the changing political scenario and the trend of incumbent governments being voted out every five years, the choice of voters has also evolved. Brahmins have moved away from the Congress to the BJP.

The Jats who were Congress supporters have moved away from the party after it made Gehlot (Mali community) the CM in 1998 and 2008. The Congress is also wary of not pushing Sachin too much to the forefront as it could make Jats and Meenas angry.

Caste groups with a small voting population (non-Jat, non-Gujjar OBCs) over the years are uniting and voting together to reduce the influence of big influential caste groups.

Caste Loyalties Not Cast In Stone

Caste loyalties are not rigid. Due to the trend of alternating governments in Rajasthan, caste/community swings are normal. Congress has been leading amongst the SC-ST community, however the gap reduced in years when BJP won the state.

Jats who have been longing for a CM from the community saw their votes split between Congress and BJP in 2008 and 2013 while they backed others including Hanuman Beniwal’s RLP in 2018. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 80 percent+ backed the BJP as the party sealed an alliance with the RLP.

Gujjars have traditionally been BJP voters, but they voted for Congress in 2018 showing loyalty to their community leader Sachin Pilot who was in the race to become CM.

Ticket Distribution Mirrors Support

BJP has given a higher number of tickets to upper castes than Congress as they are traditional supporters (63 vs 44). Both have given an almost equal representation to Hindu OBCs (72 vs 70). The Jat, Gujjar and Bania representation is almost similar for both the parties.

Congress has given a higher number of tickets to STs, 33 vs 25 reserved, (the additional eight all went to Meenas). BJP too has given ticket to 29 STs, a rare sight as mostly in other states, SC-ST representation is just equal to the reserved seats.

Both parties have given 35 tickets each to SCs, two more than reserved seats. BJP has given tickets to  three Sikhs while Congress to 15 Muslims.

In 2003 and 2013 elections, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje played the caste card to the hilt calling herself daughter-in-law of Jats, daughter of Rajputs and Samdhan of Gujjar which worked. However this strategy failed in 2008 and 2018.

Caste Census & MBC Reservation

The Congress has promised to conduct a caste census if it comes to power in the state and coined the slogan “jitni abadi utna haq”. The census promise was made very late and a section of voters do question the intent and why it wasn’t done in this term. While 44 percent respondents in a CSDS survey support the demand of caste census, 24 percent reject and 32 percent have no opinion on it.

Gehlot had also announced a six percent additional reservation for MBCs, and this has somewhat confused the voters, the messaging unclear, whether six percent will be given before census or after it is conducted. The non-Jat, non-Gujjar OBCs which include almost 90 sub caste groups could emerge as kingmakers in these elections. They have been backing the BJP in the last few elections.

The performance of RLP and BSP could also decide how the Jat and SC community votes get split between the main contenders, with these parties acting as spoilers, damaging both on different seats. BJP hopes to make a dent in the SC-ST support of the Congress which has more or less remained intact through extension of free ration distribution, Rs 24,000 crore outreach announced by PM, and by raising the crime rate against SC-ST in the state.

The CSDS survey shows Congress lagging amongst all caste groups except Jats and Muslims. To sum up, the party which succeeds in creating a broad, more acceptable social rainbow alliance and manages the contradictions within this will ultimately win the polls.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.