Congress will win at least 141 seats, form majority govt in Karnataka: State party chief D K Shivakumar

Elaborate security arrangements have been made across the State, especially in and around the counting centres, to avoid any untoward incidents, official sources said.

The State registered a "record" turnout of 73.19 per cent in the voting on May 10, to elect representatives to the 224 member Assembly.

With most exit polls predicting a tight contest between the Congress and BJP, leaders of the two parties seem "jittery" over the outcome, while the JD(S) appears to be expecting a hung verdict, which would enable it to play a role in government formation. Most pollsters have given an edge to the Congress over the ruling BJP, while also indicating the possibility of a hung Assembly in the state.

Having banked on the Modi juggernaut, the ruling BJP is looking to break a 38-year-old poll jinx where the people have never voted the incumbent party to power, while the Congress is hoping for a morale booster victory to give it a much-needed elbow room and momentum to position itself as the main opposition player in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

It also remains to be seen whether former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda-led JD(S) will emerge as a "kingmaker" or a "king" by holding the key to government formation, in the event of a hung verdict, as it has done in the past.

Like it has been the trend for about the last two decades, Karnataka witnessed a three-cornered contest, with a direct fight between the said parties in most of the constituencies.

The Aam Aadmi Party(AAP), which is in power in Delhi and Punjab, has also fielded its candidates. Also there were some smaller parties in the fray in a few constituencies.

"A government with full majority" was the strong pitch of the leaders of all the political parties during the high-decibel, no holds barred campaigning that ended on Monday, as they stressed on getting a clear mandate to form a strong and stable government, unlike what happened after the 2018 polls.

The BJP had then emerged as the single largest party by winning 104 seats, followed by Congress with 80 seats and JD(S) 37. There was also one independent member, while the BSP and Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP) got one legislator each elected.

In the 2018 elections, the Congress garnered a vote-share of 38.04 per cent, followed by the BJP (36.22 per cent) and the JD(S) (18.36 per cent).

With no party getting a clear majority at the time and as Congress and JD(S) were trying to forge an alliance, B S Yediyurappa of the BJP, which was the single largest party, staked claim and formed the government. However, it was dissolved within three days, ahead of a trust vote, as the saffron party strongman was unable to muster the required numbers.

Subsequently, the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government with Kumaraswamy as CM, but the wobbly dispensation collapsed in 14 months, triggered by the resignation of 17 ruling coalition legislators and their subsquent defection to the BJP. This enabled the BJP's return to power. In the bypolls held subsequently in 2019, the ruling party won 12 out of 15 seats.

In the outgoing Assembly, the ruling BJP has 116 MLAs, followed by the Congress 69, JD(S) 29, BSP one, independents two, speaker one and vacant six (following deaths and resignations to join other parties ahead of the polls).

Congress will win at least 141 seats, form majority govt in Karnataka: State party chief D K Shivakumar Congress state president D K Shivakumar junked the exit poll results in which the party, though it gains the highest number of seats, has to contend with a hung Assembly.

He insisted that the party will win at least 141 seats and form a majority government.

There was a wave in favour of the Congress, Shivakumar said, a day ahead of Saturday's counting of votes of the Assembly election.

He also ruled out the possibility of return of 'resort politics' saying that "era ended 25 years ago".

"I don't trust exit polls. I have trust in 141 seats. Our sample size is much bigger. Exit poll sample size is small. There is a major wave in favour of the Congress," Shivakumar told.

Stating that the exit poll results fluctuate by 20 seats, the Congress state chief said the number he has given will only increase and not decrease.
"I am not disputing the exit polls showing results in our favour. I thank them but we will get a clear majority. This is my firm belief," he insisted.
Explaining the reason behind his confidence of getting 141 seats, Shivakumar said he has been on the ground and has done his homework well.

According to Shivakumar, who is a Congress candidate from Kanakapura constituency, the verdict will be in favour of the Congress despite the money spent by the BJP and their big leaders campaigning in the election.
"Whatever money the BJP people have splurged, whichever big leaders may have campaigned and toiled here, yet the ballot is stronger than the bullet," Shivakumar said.

He also ruled out the possibility of a hung assembly and said the voters did not get scared of money and the misuse of the 'double-engine BJP government'.

"I am confident that by 1 pm tomorrow, the verdict will be out. There will be no hung assembly, he added.

Regarding JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamys statement that he was ready for a coalition government, Shivakumar said he does not know what Kumaraswamy said.

"HDK was saying his party will get absolute majority. He said this to instill confidence among his party workers. It is his calculation," the Congress state president said.

He also appealed to JD(S) workers not to "waste their career" and instead to join the Congress.

"I am not the one to get retired. So long as I am alive and healthy, I will continue to fight and will be with the people," he said.
When asked whether he has learnt about any effort to contact winnable candidates, Shivakumar said it is natural because everyone wants to be in the ruling party.

Regarding the possibility of 'resort politics' in the event of a hung Assembly, he claimed that "resort politics ended 25 years ago itself, where all the political parties used to bring people together and displayed their unity".

He was referring to events after elections in the past wherein MLAs were corralled into resorts to prevent horse trading by rival political parties.
"The BJP people have said that whatever number (of seats) they get, they will form the government. Now it seems to be their illusion," he said.

Shivakumar dismissed speculations about distribution of power even before the election results are announced. "Our line is the same as what our party national president Mallikarjun Kharge, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi say." Regarding BJP Minister R Ashokas statement that in the event of a hung Assembly, the BJP "will retain the cup (form the government)", Shivakumar said, "Let him keep the cup." Congress general secretary and Karnataka in-charge Randeep Singh Surjewala also expressed optimism about the party's prospects.

"As far as predictions are concerned, I would like to say that we are deeply humbled and with a sense of humility while thanking the people of Karnataka for reposing faith in us. Let us wait till tomorrow. The results will be out. It will be clear. Then we will make a detailed comment," Surjewala said.

To a question on the BJP leaders saying their party will get a majority and is working on a backup plan with the JD(S), the Congress leader said, "At least one thing is clear; the BJP has admitted defeat. Once they have admitted defeat, I think your predictions are correct."