Assembly Elections 2023: For Congress, a test of its OBC strategy before Lok Sabha polls

The Congress Working Committee recently passed a resolution to this effect while party leader Sonia Gandhi took the lead in demanding a sub-quota for OBC women during the recent Lok Sabha debate on the Women’s Reservation Bill. The Congress has also welcomed Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s decision to publish the data of a caste census conducted in the state.

Rahul Gandhi has been particularly vociferous on this issue and is constantly raising the demand for a nation-wide caste survey in his election speeches. Going a step further, he stirred the proverbial hornet’s nest with his slogan, “jitni abaadi, utna haq” which would make the backward classes eligible for a bigger share of resources and greater reservation in government jobs and educational institutions since they outnumber other beneficiaries of  quotas like the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes.

Having laid out its electoral strategy, the Congress is gearing up to test the waters in the forthcoming assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan which have a substantial OBC population. The party will follow it up by replicating this formula in next year’s general election in the hope that identity politics will blunt the BJP’s pitch on Hindutva.

Now that the opposition has succeeded in placing caste on the political centrestage, the big question is whether it will work in its favour in the electoral arena. The Congress believes it has an edge here as the BJP has not been particularly forthcoming on the caste census issue or the opposition’s demand seeking the release of the report of the socio-economic caste survey conducted during  Manmohan Singh government’s tenure.

But There’s Historical Baggage

However, the Congress will not find it easy to win over the backward classes with a mere promise of a caste census as it comes with historical baggage which could be difficult to shed. Congress Prime Ministers over the years - from Jawaharlal Nehru to Rajiv Gandhi – failed to implement the recommendations of the Kaka Kalelkar Commission and Mandal Commission reports which were mandated to identify the socially and educationally backward classes and suggest specific proposals for their upliftment.

Unlike the BJP, which has successfully co-opted the backward classes to its party fold by appealing to their Hindu identity, the Congress is a virtual newcomer to this game. Over the years, it did not feel the need to reach out to the backward classes as it was home and dry with its winning combination of Brahmins, Muslims and Scheduled Castes/Tribes. But it is a different story today as the Congress party’s old base has splintered and its strenuous efforts to win back these sections have proved futile.

The late Congress leader and political ideologue S Jaipal Reddy  often said that an electoral defeat was not a serious issue as the loser could always stage a comeback. But the task becomes far more challenging if a political party loses its base. This is evident from the Congress party’s three-decade-long failed struggle to build a support base, especially in the Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Congress’s Three OBC CMs

The party is now taking remedial measures with its outreach to the backward classes even though these sections have traditionally never voted for the grand old party. The Congress is hoping it can change public perception by showcasing its three OBC chief ministers – Chhattisgarh’s Bhupesh Baghel, Rajasthan’s Ashok Gehlot and Karnataka’s Siddaramaiah.

It is keen to dispel the widespread view that unlike the BJP, the Congress does not accommodate backward leaders in key positions in the party organisation and government.

On their part, Baghel and Gehlot, who are in the throes of preparing for assembly elections, are doing their best to win over the backward classes, having  declared their support for a caste-based survey.

In poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is seeking to establish its credentials by publicising the fact that its former chief minister Kamal Nath had introduced a 27 per cent quota for OBCs in 2019 before he was ousted.

Risk Of Confirmation Bias In Poll Outcomes

There is a possibility that the Congress could acquit itself well in these elections as a number of factors come into play in assembly polls. Caste, of course, is critical but local issues, anti-incumbency against sitting legislators and  the popularity of state leaders all combine to determine the outcome of an election.

It would, therefore, be foolhardy of  the Congress to believe that it was the OBC card alone which was responsible for this win and that this strategy can be replicated successfully at the national level four months later.

The Congress has a long way to go before it can win over the loyalty of backward classes as it has years of catching up to do. On the other hand, the BJP has a head start with a 44 per cent vote share among the backward classes. Besides, it  can hardly dispute the BJP’s claim that its leader and the country’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is from the backward classes.

Anita Katyal is a Delhi-based independent journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.