The Modi factor seems to be at play in West Bengal as the BJP continues to do better in the Lok Sabha polls than in the Assembly polls, according to the projections from News18 Mega exit polls. And, the myriad corruption cases against the ruling Trinamool Congress leaders in the state, is also driving away the electorate towards the BJP.
The Bengali pride that ensured victory for the TMC in the 2021 Assembly election, seems to have eroded now. If the projections prove right, what also seemed to have worked for the BJP is the slogan “Bangalir mone Modi” (Modi in the minds of Bengalis), especially for the southern Constituencies. According to the predictions, BJP is expected to storm the southern boroughs of the TMC.
The BJP as ‘outsider’ campaign plank of the TMC found no takers as many of the Trinamool candidates were outsiders too. The horses for courses strategy of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee that saw the party importing candidates from Bihar, Gujarat, and Delhi didn't work well with the attempts to portray the BJP as a party from the Hindi heartland without roots in Bengal, if the projections of the pollsters turn out to be correct.
Also, by fielding sportspersons and television personalities, who were popular but who had no direct connect with the people, the Trinamool seems to have taken the voters for star-struck lemmings. Voters were probably looking for representatives who could articulate their concerns in Parliament.
Besides, the fact that the INDIA block was divided in Bengal might not have gone down well with the people. The TMC could not come to any seat adjustment with the two major INDIA block constituents, the Left and the Congress. Mamata Banerjee’s tactic of one foot in INDIA block and the other outside, and her talk of ‘outside’ support to the INDIA block government might have confused the voters, if the results are in keeping with the exit polls projections.
Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah made several trips to Bengal and blunted the Trinamool campaign. There was an aggressive push for the southern Constituencies, including Modi’s first roadshow in Kolkata for the seventh phase of polling.
Contrary to what the Congress and the CPI(M) hoped for, the predictions imply that their candidates cut into TMC's votes rather than into BJP's share.
The BJP is projected to win at least 21 seats, up from the 18 it won five years ago. The tally could even go up to 24, which would be an increase of 33 percent in seats. The Trinamool share is likely to come down to 18 from 22, which would mean a complete reversal of the 2019 results.
The Left and the Congress might not win any seat, according to exit polls, an indication that Congress leader in the Lok Sabha and Mamata baiter Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary, who has already won the Baharampur seat five consecutive times and is looking for a double hat-trick, will not make it to the Lok Sabha.
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