Chirag Paswan matters for a couple of reasons. He is the son of Ram Vilas Paswan, a powerful Dalit leader from Bihar, who was known as the great survivor of Indian politics in his lifetime. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently called Chirag his "younger brother". It is a massive endorsement for a young buck. That he is a failed actor doesn’t really matter. He has the pedigree.
In the run-up to the 2024 general elections, Chirag is expected to focus on mobilising the Dalit vote in Bihar.
His crossing swords with his wily uncle Pashupati Paras made news as the Chacha-Bhatija (Uncle-Nephew) conflict went viral. In India, the Chacha-Bhatija relationship is often seen as tenuous in the best of times.
In Indian politics, there are several sterling examples of things going south between uncles and their illustrious nephews: Balasaheb vs Raj Thackeray; Sharad Pawar vs Ajit Pawar; Shivpal Yadav vs Akhilesh Yadav; and Abhay Chautala vs Dushyant Chautala.
Chirag’s efficacy is couched in a layer of political reasoning that suits the NDA:
· Most Lok Sabha seats have at least 10-15 thousand SC votes
· These are primarily Paswan voters
· Paswans vote aggressively and they constitute 5-6 percent of the voting population
That is why he fits in nicely in the coalition that NDA has created.
Let’s take a quick look at some numbers to gauge their relevance. The Bihar government released caste survey data on October 2, 2023, which found that 63.1 percent of Bihar's population is OBC. This triggered a lot of debate.
The chat pointers included:
· Increased demand for more political representation for larger castes
· A push to remove the 50 percent ceiling on reservations
· The caste identification of the MLAs and MPs from Bihar will come to play a decisive role in the State's politics
· Muslim-Yadav segment remains a dominant factor with 32 percent share.
· The Yadavs are 14.3 percent of the population, up from 12.7 percent in 1931. The Kurmis and the Kushwahas have gone down from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent and from 5 percent to 3.5 percent respectively.
· The opposition "Mahagathbandhan" aims to use the caste census to increase quotas for OBCs, SCs, and STs
The NDA clinched victory in the last Lok Sabha polls by building a strong social coalition of upper castes, OBCs, and Dalits. This is exactly where Chirag and Nitish Kumar fit in.
Data from the National Election Studies Post-Poll Survey indicates the United Progressive Alliance has been losing its grip on its traditional voter base in 2019.
The Yadav community's support for the UPA dropped from 65 percent to 44 percent — a significant decline. The UPA also faced setbacks among Dalits and non-Yadav OBC voters despite including leaders like Upendra Kuswaha, Mukesh Sahni, and Jitan Ram Manjhi.
Chirag joined his father's party, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), and he was soon elected to the Lok Sabha. The 2020 Assembly polls were the first real test for Chirag for 2 reasons: First, this was his solo act minus his father, and second, LJP was on its own after walking out of the NDA alliance in Bihar.
The move clicked – LJP won six of the seven seats it contested and emerged as the second-largest party behind BJP. In 2019, Chirag was elected LJP national president.
With a heart ailment detected in 2013, Ram Vilas transferred power to his son. Chirag hit pay dirt joining NDA and winning both the 2014 and 2019 elections.
Chirag's political prospects were weakened after the split in the LJP in 2022 when his uncle Pashupati broke away from the LJP and formed his own party, the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party.
On 14 June 2021, Chirag was replaced as Lok Sabha leader of the LJP by his uncle. A day after, Chirag expelled 5 rebel MPs for anti-party activities including his uncle and cousin Prince Raj.
But the drama that ensued cost Chirag considerably. From being projected as the young prince who would naturally inherit the mantle, he was sitting in his car, eyes constantly darting to the phone, waiting to meet his uncle. Pashupati made him sweat in more ways than one.
But politics can teach a human being myriad lessons. In March 2024, the BJP sealed a seat-sharing alliance with the LJP and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United). According to the deal, the LJP will contest five of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar -- Vaishali, Hajipur, Samastipur, Khagaria, and Jamui.
The following day, Chirag’s uncle Pashupati resigned as a minister from the Union Cabinet. Basically, he was cut loose.
Pashupati, along with his nephew Prince Raj, met BJP national president JP Nadda in Delhi. Then, possibly under duress, he said he would support NDA on 40 out of 40 seats. He said that whether it is LJP's seat or Chirag Paswan's, he will support them.
It was a way to paper over a gaping wound.
After engineering a split in 2021 in Lok Janshakti Party founded by Ram Vilas Paswan, Pashupati thought he would be the main inheritor. While he succeeded in getting the support of all LJP MPs, except Chirag, they have now deserted him.
Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy stems from the Hajipur seat which he won in 1980, 1989, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004, and 2014, and his younger brother Pashupati won from there in 2019, reinforcing it as a stronghold of the Paswan family.
In 2024, the contest is between the NDA and the Bihar's Mahagathbandhan.
Chirag is NDA's candidate from Hajipur and the responsibility to save the family's political legacy lies on his shoulder this time. He also doesn’t have an uncle to worry about.
Hajipur has around 19.5 lakh voters, which includes 10.22 lakh males and 9.26 females. As far as the caste equation is concerned, there are around 3 lakh Paswan voters in Hajipur; there are also 3 lakh each voters belonging to the Yadav and Rajput communities.
The BJP has been of the view that the chacha-bhatija should "come together". That may not be easy as Chirag says Paras was "the one to cause a split in the family and the party," so he should make the first move.
Chirag is being billed as a "youth leader" who would politically survive and thrive as long as he tags along with a marquee brand. Doesn’t it sound like Ram Vilas Paswan 2.0?
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