Maharashtra Elections 2024: 5 power centres and what’s at stake for them

Sharad Pawar: The Old War Horse

Maharashtra’s old horse who refuses to hang his boots, Sharad Pawar is known to take setbacks in his stride and turn them into opportunities. So, when his nephew and NCP’s second-in-command Ajit Pawar rebelled and walked out with a significant chunk of his party MLAs and MPs to join the ruling Mahayuti, Pawar Sr turned it around to generate a wave of sympathy that he would go on to ride in the Lok Sabha elections to deliver the best strike rate within the Maha Vikas Aghadi, winning eight of the 10 seats it contested.

The NCP split, however, has left him with a bitter taste – one that only a victory in the upcoming elections can salvage. There are 38 seats where candidates from both factions of the NCP will face off against each other — the NCP(SP) is contesting 86 seats this time.

Besides extracting political vengeance against his nephew, Pawar will also have the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, a coalition he masterminded amid the stalemate after the 2019 Assembly elections and came to power with the support of the then undivided Shiv Sena. However, the rebellion by Eknath Shinde led to a collapse of the MVA government and brought the Mahayuti to power. Pawar had been trumped at his own game by the BJP and he has been aching to exact his revenge ever since. A defeat, however, may diminish his stature as the central figure of Maharashtra politics.

Devendra Fadnavis: Much to Prove

The upheaval in the power corridors of Maharashtra may have brought back BJP to power after the setback by Uddhav Thackeray, but it did not leave former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis unscathed. Forced to play second fiddle to CM Eknath Shinde, Fadnavis has lately emerged as the new Hindutva poster boy of the BJP in a bid to salvage lost pride.

In the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year, the BJP was restricted to a dismal 9 of the 28 seats it contested in Maharashtra. Fadnavis, who faced much of the blame for the party’s lackluster performance, would be raring to prove a point.

An upbeat BJP, buoyed by its surprising victory in Haryana, is hoping to turn the tables against the Opposition. The performance of the BJP, which is contesting 152 seats this time, will be a key factor in deciding the poll outcome for the Mahayuti. And Fadnavis is at the centre of it all.

Uddhav Thackeray: Vengeance on his Mind

Having emerged from the towering shadow of his father, late Bal Thackeray, and taken the post of chief minister after laying with traditional rivals Congress and NCP, Uddhav Thackeray received a rude shock in the form of a rebellion by Eknath Shinde. SHiv Sena lost a majority of its MLAs and Uddhav was forced to resign just ahead of a floor test.

While he managed to exact revenge on the BJP and Shinde Sena in the Lok Sabha elections this year, winning 9 of the 21 seats it contested, the real test would lie when he goes one on one against rivals in the race for a majority in the 288-member Assembly.

Revenge against Shinde and the other rebels is not the only factor at stake for him – he is also fighting to establish himself and his party as the true claimants to the legacy of Bal Thackeray. The poll outcome would also determine his standing as a leader of the Opposition and his potential to play kingmaker in Maharashtra and beyond.

Eknath Shinde: Rebel with a Cause

Having emerged as the kingmaker in Maharashtra and defied expectations to assume the post of Chief Minister after his rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde appears to have finally managed to shed the image of being a “BJP puppet” and come into his own.

With 40 MLAs by his side, Shinde is desperate to improve his tally and increase his clout in the Mahayuti alliance. The Lok Sabha elections, where the Shinde Sena won seven of the 15 seats it contested, proved Shinde’s acceptability among the electorate. An improvement in his tally would not only cement his position as a formidable leader within the Mahayuti. It would also eliminate any threat to his position as chief minister.

Ajit Pawar: The Dark Horse
The stakes are perhaps the highest for Ajit Pawar, who rebelled against his uncle Sharad pawar and split the NCP into two. After the Mahayuti’s dismal performance in the Lok Sabha elections, a large section of the RSS squarely blamed the BJP’s decision to ally with Pawar for its drastic fall in tally. Labelled a “traitor” for causing a rift in the family, Ajit Pawar does not enjoy the best of relations with the Shinde Sena either. His party also managed to win just one seat in the general elections.

With his back against the wall, Ajit Pawar now stands at a pivotal position where the performance of his party alone will decide his political future and that of his faction. With his position in the Mahayuti automatically at stake, the outcome of the 52 seats his faction is contesting could decide his future in the alliance. Also at stake is the claim to his family bastion of Baramati, a seat he has held since 1991, where he is up against nephew Yugendra.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the NCP(AP) fielded Pawar’s wife Sunetra against Supriya Sule and lost. A second successive defeat in the family bastion may make his resurrection a tall ask.