Rahul Gandhi’s campaign push appears to have had little bearing on Congress fortunes in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, with BJP and JD(U) registering stronger gains in constituencies where the Congress leader took out his yatra, a Moneycontrol analysis shows. The data suggests that the party’s on-ground mobilisation did not translate into improved strike rates or stronger vote consolidation, even in pockets touched by high-profile rallies.
Across 183 constituencies that fell along the Rahul Yatra route, the NDA posted an 89.1 percent seat share, significantly higher than its 54.1 percent share in the same seats in 2020. By contrast, Congress’ own performance in these areas remained weak. The party was leading in just one out of these seats. Overall, the party contested 61 seats and could only register four leads until 04:00 PM.
The BJP–JD(U) coalition, meanwhile, gained ground sharply. JD(U) posted a 48.3 percent vote share in Rahul Yatra constituencies, while the BJP secured 50 percent, compared with 40.7 percent and 47.2 percent during 2020 elections and both higher than their respective state averages.
The contrast becomes sharper when matched with Tejashwi Yadav’s footprint. In constituencies touched by the RJD leader, the NDA’s seat share rose to 80.3 percent, up from 53 percent in 2020, but the RJD still managed a deeper consolidation than Congress.
Congress and RJD Mahagathbandan also underperformed in several favourable socio-economic cohorts. In constituencies with large self-help group (SHG) memberships, NDA parties captured 60 percent of seats, while in districts with sharp declines in multidimensional poverty over 2016–21 — typically strong terrain for welfare-linked messaging — the NDA took 81 percent, compared with 19 percent for both in 2020. Even in migrant-heavy constituencies, an area Congress has targeted with economic messaging since 2020, the NDA won 87.6 percent of seats.
Rahul Gandhi’s yatra belts delivered minimal vote-share lift for Congress. The NDA also outperformed Congress and RJD-led Mahagathbandan in Muslim-majority seats, winning 71.9 percent of the seats compared with 56.3 percent earlier.
The broader picture shows that high-visibility rallies and yatras did little to alter the structural imbalance between Congress and the NDA in Bihar. As turnout surged across women-dominant seats, flood-affected districts, and migrant belts, the gains largely accrued to BJP and JD(U), not Congress.
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