A new spell of heavy to extremely heavy rain is expected to hit the hill states of north India over the next few days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued alerts, saying that a rare combination of the monsoon trough and an active western disturbance will bring intense showers.
This interaction is likely to impact Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir, raising fears of flash floods, swollen rivers, and landslides.
According to the IMD, very heavy rainfall is expected in different phases, Uttarakhand on September 1, Himachal Pradesh till September 2, and Jammu on September 2.
The overall region of northwest India will likely experience a prolonged wet spell for three to four days, The Times of India reported.
Western disturbances, which are usually more common in winter, are now coinciding with the ongoing monsoon. Experts say this overlap is creating highly unstable weather conditions.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra pointed out that August had already seen three such intense interactions, leading to dangerous incidents in places like Dharali in Uttarakhand, Kishtwar in Jammu & Kashmir, and Mandi in Himachal Pradesh.
"The intense interaction will cause heavy showers in parts of Uttarakhand for the next 48 hours. We have upgraded the weather alert to ‘red' in Dehradun, Tehri, Pauri, Haridwar, Nainital, Champawat, Bageshwar, and Udham Singh Nagar districts,” Rohit Thapliyal, senior scientist at the regional meteorological centre in Dehradun, was quoted by TOI as saying.
Why the weather is turning dangerous
According to the experts, the monsoon trough is currently running south of its usual position, while a western disturbance in the form of a cyclonic circulation is hovering over north Pakistan and nearby Punjab.
At the same time, circulations over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are pulling in large amounts of moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
When this moisture meets the western disturbance along the Himalayan foothills, it creates an atmosphere ripe for heavy and widespread rainfall.
IMD director general also shared rainfall figures, saying northwest India received 265 mm of rain in August, the highest for the month since 2001 and among the top 15 wettest Augusts since 1901.
With above-normal rainfall already recorded in June, July, and August, the trend is expected to continue into September.
Preparedness and risks ahead
The IMD has advised state governments to remain on high alert. Heavy rains could worsen landslides in already fragile hill areas, block highways, and disrupt pilgrimage routes. Cities and towns downstream of Himalayan rivers could also be affected by flooding as rivers swell with rainwater.
On Saturday and Sunday, both Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh reported very heavy rain, while Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and parts of Uttar Pradesh also received strong showers.
Officials warn that if the rains continue at this pace, the impact on lives, infrastructure, and tourism in the Himalayan belt could be severe.
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