Rs 64 lakh per sortie: Why experts say Delhi's costly cloud seeding project can't fix winter smog

Despite these efforts, the city saw no measurable rainfall. IIT Kanpur stated that neighbouring areas received only trace amounts - 0.1 mm in Noida and 0.2 mm in Greater Noida - data it attributed to a private weather application.

Authorities identified a key culprit for the lack of rain: insufficient moisture. An IIT Kanpur statement confirmed that humidity levels within the targeted clouds ranged from a mere 10% to 20%, far below the ideal conditions required for successful seeding.

Rs 64 lakh per sortie: A temporary fix under fire



The project's substantial cost is now under intense scrutiny. According to the MoU between the Delhi environment department and IIT Kanpur, the budget for cloud seeding is over Rs 3.2 crore for five trials, translating to approximately Rs 64 lakh per sortie.

With Delhi's air quality index (AQI) continuing to hover in the 'very poor' to 'poor' range, experts are questioning the value of this temporary intervention.

Experts question science behind winter cloud seeding



Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director of research and advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment, was cited by TOI as saying that even if rain were to wash out pollutants, the impact would be fleeting. "The pollution will bounce back quickly. The impact lasts from hours to a couple of days," she said, stressing that the initiative cannot be done regularly for the entire winter season and that investments should instead target actual emission reduction from ground sources.

The scientific rationale for winter cloud seeding was further questioned by Shahzad Gani, assistant professor at IIT Delhi's Centre for Atmospheric Sciences. He explained that Delhi's winter is typically very dry, with meaningful rain usually only occurring due to a western disturbance.

Gani argued that conducting cloud seeding during such natural weather phenomena would be pointless. He also raised concerns about potential liability if damaging rain coincided with seeding operations, as cited by TOI.

The pollution paradox: A marginal drop amid failed rains



Despite the lack of rainfall, IIT Kanpur reported an unexpected development, a slight reduction in air pollution parameters following the first seeding flight. The institute's data showed decreases in PM2.5 and PM10 levels in several seeded areas, proposing that the increased moisture content may have helped settle some pollutants given negligible wind conditions.

This interpretation has been met with scepticism from other quarters. Mukesh Khare, Professor Emeritus at IIT Delhi's Civil Engineering Department, maintained that "humidity only can make the particles heavier" but cannot settle PM2.5 particles without a force like rain. He suggested the minor improvements were likely due to other factors.

Pilot project or costly distraction? The debate intensifies



The defence from authorities has emphasised the project's pioneering nature. Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa described this as among "India's biggest scientific steps for urban air quality control," while IIT Kanpur has committed to conducting up to nine trials within the allocated budget as a non-profit research initiative.

However, a growing chorus of experts contends that technological fixes cannot replace fundamental solutions. Sunil Dahiya of think tank EnviroCatalysts stated that addressing air quality requires tackling sector-specific emissions, while activist Bhavreen Kandhari noted that "clean air will not come from artificial rain, but from sustained reductions in emissions."

With IIT Kanpur director Manindra Agrawal confirming two additional attempts for Wednesday, the capital's scientific gamble continues — caught between uncertain results, high costs and expert consensus that lasting solutions lie elsewhere.