After two days of intense talks in Berlin between American envoys, Ukrainian leaders and European officials, attention has now shifted to Moscow. A final US-backed proposal to end the war in Ukraine is expected to be presented to Russia within days, and its fate will depend entirely on President Vladimir Putin’s response.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that a revised American proposal could soon be shared with Russia, according to The Independent. The plan was shaped during meetings involving US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, alongside Zelenskyy and senior European leaders.
While major differences remain, officials involved in the talks say some progress has been made, particularly on security guarantees for Ukraine.
US signals security guarantees for Ukraine
For the first time since Trump returned to the White House, the US administration has pledged security guarantees for Ukraine that are modelled on NATO’s Article 5, according to Reuters. Article 5 commits NATO members to collective defence if one of them is attacked.
Zelenskyy has consistently argued that any peace deal must include firm security guarantees, ideally ones that are legally binding and approved by the US Congress. Without them, he has warned, Ukraine would remain vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
Two officials familiar with the talks told Reuters that the proposed guarantees are “Article 5-like” and would include strict monitoring and deconfliction mechanisms to prevent minor incidents from escalating into full-scale fighting.
Russia signals little room for compromise
Despite movement on the Western side, there are growing signs that Russia may reject the proposal outright. Putin has already dismissed three previous peace initiatives floated by the Trump administration, even as Zelenskyy accepted them.
The Kremlin has ruled out a ceasefire during the Christmas period and has reiterated that Russia will continue fighting until it achieves its objectives.
“We want peace. We don’t want a truce to give Ukraine a breathing space and prepare for a continuation of the war. We want to stop this war, achieve our goals, secure our interests,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.
Russia’s position has also been hardened by comments from Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. He said Moscow would not return any occupied territory as part of a settlement and would not accept Nato peacekeepers in Ukraine after the war, according to The Independent.
Putin’s maximalist demands remain unchanged
Since launching the invasion, Putin has stuck to maximalist conditions that would effectively strip Ukraine of large parts of its territory and severely limit its sovereignty. These demands have remained unchanged despite battlefield setbacks and international pressure.
Notably, Putin showed little enthusiasm even for Trump’s original 28-point plan, which incorporated many Russian demands and was widely seen as highly favourable to Moscow.
While the Berlin talks appear to have narrowed differences on security guarantees, the issue of territory remains the biggest obstacle. Trump has reportedly pushed for Ukraine to surrender the entire Donbas region, while Zelenskyy has countered with a proposal to freeze the current battle lines rather than formally cede land.
As the revised proposal moves closer to Putin’s desk, the gap between the two sides remains wide. With Ukraine demanding long-term security and Russia refusing to compromise on territory or NATO involvement, the coming days could determine whether the war edges toward negotiations or continues with no clear end in sight.
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