Stalemate or strategy? Why Trump-Xi summit remains a no-show as trade talks tick down to deadline

Trade pause holding, but for how long?

The immediate context is a temporary trade détente struck in London last month, which is currently set to expire in mid-August. Under the agreement, China resumed some exports of critical rare earth materials vital for clean energy and defence technology, while the US loosened certain restrictions on high-tech exports, including chip-design software, jet engine components, and ethane.

There have been small but tangible signs of follow-through. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that rare earth shipments from China have resumed, albeit at modest levels. The US, for its part, has allowed some high-tech exports to proceed without requiring additional licenses. Still, much of the progress remains limited, with no comprehensive agreement yet announced.

With the July 9 deadline looming for both governments to publicly outline the scope and structure of a potential long-term trade deal, the absence of detailed announcements has raised eyebrows. Trade teams from both countries are reportedly working behind the scenes, but a breakthrough remains elusive. The lack of a formal Trump-Xi summit plan is now being seen as both a symptom and a cause of the delay.

Diplomatic stalemate or strategic delay?

According to Axios and other outlets, Trump’s top Asia envoy Steve Witkoff has maintained communication with Chinese officials, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt recently stated that “no visit has been scheduled at this time.” Sources familiar with the situation say that Trump’s team has begun informal outreach to US business leaders, gauging interest in accompanying him on a potential trip to Beijing later this year. But so far, no diplomatic push has materialised to lock in the high-stakes meeting.

Wu Xinbo suggested that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea this October could offer a natural opportunity for a Trump-Xi meeting, but he stressed that “you can’t just leave this to the trade teams. We need the involvement of the entire government apparatus, especially the diplomatic and security channels.”

His remarks echo broader concerns in Beijing that Washington may be dragging its feet, whether due to internal divisions, domestic politics, or hesitancy to give China a perceived diplomatic win. On the other hand, some US analysts suggest that Beijing too has been slow to commit, wary of tying Xi’s political capital to a meeting that might not yield a clear win.

Taiwan, technology and expectations

Complicating the matter are unresolved flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Liu Jianchao, another senior Chinese official, recently warned that although war between the two nations remains “unimaginable,” missteps could still make it a reality. These underlying tensions make the need for high-level communication all the more urgent, yet also more politically risky.

According to Wu, China has two key expectations for a Trump visit: first, a public recognition of China as the United States’ most vital commercial partner; second, a reaffirmation that Washington does not support Taiwanese independence and backs peaceful reunification. “Trump is a smart negotiator,” Wu noted. “He knows how to frame a deal that aligns with America’s interests. When he’s in Beijing, he’ll say what needs to be said.”

Clock is ticking

Despite some optimism in diplomatic circles, the lack of clear movement toward organising the summit is fuelling anxiety. Both sides appear to be testing each other's commitment – all while the fragile trade truce remains temporary and uncertain.

If no announcement comes by July 9, analysts warn it could undercut confidence in the entire framework deal. With the clock ticking, the delay is no longer just about diplomatic calendars – it’s becoming a test of whether the two powers can still engage constructively at the highest levels.