For years, Poland was one of the United States' most loyal allies in Europe. Since becoming a member of NATO in 1999, it has been home to thousands of American soldiers and has enjoyed US political and military guarantees, constructing its post-communist future on the shoulders of Western solidarity. But now, that confidence is starting to erode, the New York Times reported.
President Donald Trump's comeback to office reignited profound fears in Warsaw. His explicit threats to roll back US backing for NATO, his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his economic measures—slate-sized tariffs included—have alarmed a nation that feels like Europe's bulwark against Russian expansion. And that's on top of perpetual threats from Moscow, such as demands for NATO's retreat from Poland, and the geopolitical terrain under Warsaw is changing fast.
Defence spending surges as Poland readies for the unknown
As a response, Poland is significantly increasing military preparedness. It currently allocates 4.5% of GDP to the military—the largest proportion among big European countries—and is targeting 5%, well above NATO's 2% and even Trump's new call for more contributions from member nations. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is also introducing Swiss-inspired civil defence programs and Ukrainian war lessons, including one-month military training paid for any volunteer with an aim to achieve 100,000 volunteers a year by 2027.
Aside from efforts at the national level, Poland is also urging a wider European rethinking on security. With the American nuclear shield in doubt, Tusk has even mentioned a European nuclear deterrent—a dramatic turnaround for a nation that has long relied on the United States for defence. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski concurred, stating that Europe needs to prepare to defend itself without the assurances it had long taken for granted.
Poland calls on EU to fill gap as US reliability wavers
With war on its border and memories of Cold War treacheries never far beneath the surface, Polish leaders are cautioning fellow Europeans: the moment for strategic independence has arrived. Tusk is mobilizing nations such as France, Germany, Britain, Italy, and the Nordic and Baltic nations to invest in a shared defence policy that is less dependent on Washington.
Poland itself has offered €40 billion worth of military projects that would be funded by a proposed €150 billion EU defence loan facility. The move toward European cooperation is a dramatic change of heart for Warsaw, which historically preferred American leadership to Brussels red tape on security matters.
Meanwhile, Poland is still keen to keep America on good terms. While it has been irked by Trump's bombast, the Tusk administration has continued with a contract between US firms Westinghouse and Bechtel to construct Poland's initial nuclear power plant—highlighting Warsaw's preference to keep economic and defence links with the US where it can.
A solid defence front in spite of political differences
While Poland is still politically divided before a presidential election, with strong cleavages between Tusk's centre-right Civic Platform and the Law and Justice party's nationalism, defence is one sector of limited agreement. The Ukraine invasion, turmoil in Belarus, and Trump's transactional diplomacy toward alliances have united public opinion on national and regional security.
There is also increasing concern that Trump's troop drawdowns—like the recent relocation of US troops close to the Ukrainian border—are giving Russia confidence. "We Poles will not live in a grey zone ever again," Michal Baranowski, a senior government official who participated in Poland's defence industrial policy, said. "And there should be no grey zones in the European Union, either."
As Polish historian Karolina Wigura has it: "You feel one step from Yalta," a nod to the notorious 1945 Yalta summit where the leaders of the West divided up Eastern Europe. "The old angst re-emerges—that Russia will attack us, and the West will betray us."
For Poland, the post-Cold War world of security through American power is no longer guaranteed. A new era is dawning—one of self-reliance, European coordination, and vigilant defence against the threat from the east.
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