US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a $100,000 annual fee on H1B visa applications has rattled India’s technology sector, but pressures on this route long predate his move. Official data from US visa office analysed by Moneycontrol shows approvals for Indian applicants had already plunged by more than a third since 2023, with the slide beginning in former President Joe Biden’s final year in office.
India Hit Hardest
Indians remain the largest beneficiaries of the H1B programme, but also its biggest losers. Between January and May 2023, nearly one lakh approvals were granted to Indians. That number fell 28 percent to 71,219 in 2024 and slipped further to 63,323 in 2025—a two-year contraction of almost 37 percent.
China too saw a dip, with approvals down 27 percent in 2025, though the two-year decline was less steep at 3 percent. By contrast, other economies have registered gains: Vietnam (42 percent), Brazil (27 percent) and Mexico (21 percent). Approvals from Bangladesh jumped 21 percent, while Pakistan recorded a modest 4 percent increase over the two-year period.
Global H1B Route ShrinksThe broader H1B programme is contracting as well. Global approvals fell 20 percent in 2024 to 96,409 and another 11 percent in 2025 to 84,679. The downturn reflects both tighter scrutiny and softer corporate demand, even before Trump’s new fee takes effect.
The contrast with Trump’s first term is stark. Between 2017–2020, Indians accounted for an average of 73.9 percent of approvals—the highest share in 16 years—compared with 73 percent under Biden and just 55.9 percent under Barack Obama’s first term.
Implications for India’s Tech IndustryFor India’s outsourcing and IT services giants, which account for the bulk of filings, the new $100,000 fee represents a structural challenge.
TCS was one of the top employers in the category accounting for over a lakh successful application over the last decade, while Infosys was also close with over 90,000 approved applications. Cognizant accounted for over 1.4 lakh applicants.
Costs of sending staff onsite in the US will rise sharply, likely accelerating a pivot toward local hiring, remote delivery and near-shore centres.
Geopolitical Backdrop
The H1B squeeze also reflects shifting US–India dynamics. Washington continues to court New Delhi as a strategic partner, but the long-standing visa channel—once a symbol of soft power and people-to-people ties—is narrowing.
The broader pattern is visible across travel too. Moneycontrol analysis shows US tourist visa (B1/B2) approvals for Indians have already slipped in recent months, suggesting that both leisure and labour mobility are facing headwinds.
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