Export bans, rising prices: How Ukraine’s drone strikes have pushed Russia into its worst fuel shortage in years

According to figures cited by the Financial Times, at least 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries have been hit in recent months, some repeatedly. These include some of the country’s largest and most critical facilities.

Among the most significant targets was the 340,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Ryazan near Moscow. Other key refineries struck in recent weeks include major plants in Saratov, Novokuibyshevsk, Volgograd and Bashkortostan.

On September 18, Ukrainian drones penetrated deep into central Russia to hit the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery and petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan, about 1,400 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine’s SBU security service claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it struck the heart of the facility and caused a “strong fire.”

That same day a second strike targeted one of Russia’s largest refineries in Volgograd, nearly 1,000 kilometres south of Moscow. Two days later Ukraine launched additional strikes that damaged refineries in Saratov and Novokuibyshevsk.

These attacks mark a significant expansion of Ukraine’s ability to hit targets deep inside Russian territory. Previously strikes were largely limited to areas closer to the border. Ukrainian officials and independent analysts confirmed that several of the facilities targeted in September were more than 1,000 kilometres away from Ukrainian-controlled areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has framed these strikes as an essential part of Ukraine’s strategy to disrupt Russia’s war machine. Earlier this month he said, “The most effective sanctions — the ones that work the fastest — are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots.”

Zelenskyy has also confirmed that Ukraine is increasing production of long-range drones to sustain and expand these attacks. “Once the number of drones matches the Russians’, they will feel the fuel shortage and loss,” he told reporters. “We already see this increasingly. More drones are reaching targets.”

Russian refining capacity and exports disrupted

Research group Energy Aspects estimates that the Ukrainian attacks have disrupted over 1 million barrels per day of Russia’s refining capacity. This scale of disruption is unprecedented since the early stages of the conflict and is already evident in export data.

Tracking firms OilX and Vortexa project that Russia’s diesel exports for September will fall to their lowest monthly levels since 2020. Diesel, a vital fuel for Russia’s domestic economy and its export revenues, is especially important for agriculture and for certain segments of the military.

While tanks and some military vehicles rely on diesel, others such as those used for transporting wounded soldiers require gasoline, a fuel that is now in especially short supply domestically.

Russia is the second-largest diesel exporter in the world. Traditionally about half of its diesel exports go to Turkey, with other significant markets in West Africa, North Africa and Brazil. Since the European Union and the United Kingdom no longer import Russian diesel directly due to sanctions, these alternative markets have become even more crucial to Moscow’s energy revenues.

With Russian exports falling sharply, Turkey has turned to other suppliers such as India and Saudi Arabia to meet its needs. This shift has driven diesel premiums sharply higher, with prices climbing to about 25 to 30 dollars per barrel above the cost of Brent crude. This is the highest level since the summer when regional instability pushed oil prices to a 15-month peak.

Kremlin imposes sweeping export bans

Facing growing internal shortages, Russia has been forced to take drastic steps to conserve fuel for domestic use. In March Moscow first introduced restrictions on certain gasoline exports. By July these measures were expanded to cover all major gasoline producers. Despite these actions domestic shortages continued to deepen.

On Thursday Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a significant escalation of these policies. “In the near future, we will extend the ban on gasoline exports until the end of the year, and a ban on diesel fuel exports by non-producers will also be introduced until the end of the year,” Novak said in comments reported by state media.

Novak acknowledged that there was “indeed a slight shortage of petroleum products” but argued that the situation was being managed through the use of accumulated reserves. However, he admitted that balancing supplies for September and October would be “difficult.”

This latest round of restrictions marks the most comprehensive attempt yet by Moscow to stabilise its domestic market. By curbing exports Russia hopes to redirect supplies toward internal needs, particularly as the winter heating season approaches and agricultural demand remains high.

Diesel alone represents a major source of income, and restricting sales abroad will have fiscal consequences at a time when Moscow is already under heavy financial strain from war-related expenditures and international sanctions.

Crimea at the centre of the fuel crisis

Among all regions affected by the shortages occupied Crimea has emerged as the most severely impacted. The peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, has seen its fuel supply collapse over the past several weeks. According to Kommersant around 50 per cent of gas stations in Crimea and the city of Sevastopol have halted sales due to lack of fuel.

Data compiled from monitoring more than 17,000 gas stations across Russia indicates that shortages are widespread but particularly acute in Crimea and parts of the Southern Federal District, which Russia claims includes the occupied peninsula. Between 28 July and 22 September the number of operating gas stations nationwide fell by 2.6 per cent. In some areas such as Rostov Oblast, the Mari El Republic and the Jewish Autonomous Oblast the decline reached as high as 14 per cent.

Local authorities in Crimea have admitted the severity of the problem. Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin-backed head of the region, addressed residents in a video message stating that some oil refineries were “physically not functioning,” which was contributing to the crisis.

He urged patience, describing the shortages as “an unavoidable situation being caused by objective factors.” Aksyonov promised that AI-95 grade gasoline would be delivered to stations within two days and that lower-octane AI-92 supplies would return within two weeks. However, on-the-ground reports suggest that the situation remains volatile.

The Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported that Sevastopol had completely run out of gasoline on Wednesday. When two tankers finally arrived at a local station they were emptied within hours as long lines of vehicles formed.

The domestic fuel shortage has triggered a sharp rise in wholesale prices. On Thursday the cost of AI-92 gasoline, one of Russia’s most commonly used fuel grades, reached an unprecedented 79,788 rubles per tonne, equivalent to about 952 dollars. This marks a dramatic increase of more than 40 per cent since January this year.

Global ripple effects

Reduced diesel exports are impacting global markets, prompting countries like Turkey to diversify their supply sources. Rising diesel premiums are affecting shipping, agriculture and transportation costs worldwide, with potential knock-on effects for global inflation.

Ukraine is leveraging the success of its strikes to push for stronger international measures against Russia. Zelenskyy is expected to meet with US President Donald Trump during the ongoing UN General Assembly, where he plans to advocate for tougher sanctions on Moscow’s energy sector.

Zelenskyy has argued that cutting Russia’s oil revenues would directly weaken its capacity to sustain the war. Trump has repeatedly pressed European countries to reduce their dependence on Russian energy, indicating that future US actions may depend on Europe’s willingness to make deeper cuts.

At the same time Russia has boosted its own military campaign. In late August a massive assault damaged numerous buildings in Kyiv including the EU mission and British Council offices. More recently Russian drones breached the airspace of several NATO member nations triggering consultations under NATO’s Article 4.