China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into newly built silo fields and shows little willingness to engage in arms control negotiations, according to a draft Pentagon report that highlights Beijing’s rapidly expanding nuclear and military capabilities.
The report, reviewed by Reuters, says China is modernising and enlarging its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than any other nuclear-armed country, raising fresh concerns about the erosion of global arms control efforts amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry.
“We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” the report said, underscoring Washington’s doubts about the prospects for nuclear diplomacy with China.
Missile silos and nuclear expansion
According to the Pentagon’s assessment, China has likely deployed more than 100 solid-fuel DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles across three silo fields near its border with Mongolia. While US officials had previously confirmed the existence of these sites, the number of missiles loaded had not been disclosed earlier.
China’s nuclear warhead stockpile was estimated to be in the low 600s in 2024, the report said, adding that Beijing remains on course to surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030.
The findings mirror assessments by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which has said China’s nuclear expansion is unmatched by any other nuclear power.
The Pentagon declined to comment on the draft, noting it could still be revised before being submitted to US lawmakers.
China rejects buildup allegations
China rejected the report’s conclusions, with its embassy in Washington reiterating that Beijing maintains a defensive nuclear posture and keeps its arsenal at the minimum level required for national security.
Beijing accused the United States of attempting to “smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community,” while restating its no-first-use nuclear policy and moratorium on nuclear testing.
The assessment comes weeks after US President Donald Trump said he may pursue denuclearisation talks with China and Russia, a prospect the Pentagon report suggests Beijing is unlikely to embrace.
Taiwan and broader military ambitions
Beyond nuclear forces, the report warned of China’s growing conventional military capabilities, concluding that Beijing believes it could “fight and win” a conflict over Taiwan by the end of 2027.
China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its territory and has not ruled out the use of force. The report said Beijing is refining military options to seize the island, including long-range strikes extending up to 2,000 nautical miles, potentially challenging US military presence across the Asia-Pacific.
Arms control concerns
The findings come less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia. With no replacement framework and China outside the pact, analysts warn of a potential three-way nuclear arms race.
“More nuclear weapons and an absence of diplomacy will not make anyone safer,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. “Not China, not Russia, and not the United States.”
The report also highlighted China’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign under President Xi Jinping, particularly within the People’s Liberation Army and state-owned defence firms. While the purges may affect short-term readiness, the Pentagon said they could lead to long-term improvements in military efficiency.
At least 26 senior executives at defence-related companies have been investigated or removed over the past 18 months, as scrutiny expanded to China’s nuclear and shipbuilding sectors.
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