A top-secret Pentagon assessment has warned that the United States would face a devastating defeat, including the loss of its largest aircraft carrier, if it attempted to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, according to a New York Times report on the classified “Overmatch Brief.”
The document, prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, reportedly concludes that China would overwhelm US forces with its arsenal of around 600 hypersonic weapons, advanced missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines.
The findings echo earlier war-game results and raise serious questions about the US military’s dependence on expensive, vulnerable legacy systems. One White House official was said to have “turned pale” upon reviewing the document, which describes how China could destroy US fighter jets, ships, and satellites while exploiting American vulnerabilities in supply chains and military infrastructure.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has previously said that “we lose every time” in Pentagon simulations involving Taiwan.
The report highlights the persistent US strategy of investing in large, slow-to-build platforms such as the $13-billion USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, a ship frequently destroyed in war-game scenarios, even as Beijing expands its own stockpile of cheaper but technologically advanced weapons. Despite this, the US Navy plans to build at least nine more Ford-class carriers.
Analysts cited in the report argue that the Pentagon risks “fighting the last war” and must divert funding toward drones, cyber capabilities, and more resilient technologies. The war in Ukraine, they note, has already shown the diminishing battlefield utility of traditional platforms like tanks.
The Times report comes amid heightened regional tensions, with Chinese President Xi Jinping instructing his military to be prepared for a potential Taiwan operation by 2027. Beijing maintains that Taiwan is part of its territory and has not ruled out using force.
“We have a firm will, strong determination, and a strong ability to defend our national sovereignty and territorial integrity… We will crush all foreign interference,” Chinese spokesperson Peng Qingen recently said.
According to the Overmatch brief, a China-backed hacking group known as Volt Typhoon has placed malware inside power, water, and communications networks that support US military bases. Such intrusions could disrupt Washington’s ability to deploy and sustain forces in the Pacific, and potentially affect civilian infrastructure.
US officials have also warned that China could launch cyberattacks against American utilities during a Taiwan crisis. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan previously acknowledged the US could rapidly run out of artillery shells in such a conflict.
Independent research aligns with the Pentagon’s internal findings. A series of 26 war-game scenarios by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that a Chinese naval blockade, seen as a likely first step, could trigger catastrophic losses on both sides.
In the worst case, breaking the blockade cost the US 21,000 casualties, 45 ships, an aircraft carrier, two submarines, and more than 1,000 aircraft. China, in that scenario, lost 13,000 troops, 42 submarines, nearly 100 ships, and roughly 1,000 aircraft.
The CSIS simulations also warned that any blockade would plunge Taiwan into crisis, forcing a dangerous race to evacuate nearly one million foreign nationals and leaving the US president to decide whether to confront Chinese forces directly or risk abandoning the island.
Despite the grim projections, the Trump administration’s recent National Security Strategy reaffirmed the US commitment to deterring a Chinese attack. It stated: “Given that one third of global shipping passes through the South China Sea, there are major implications for the U.S. economy. Hence, deterring conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority.”
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