Cease-fire, same rulers? Why Hamas is back on the streets of Gaza

The group’s civilian-facing offices also moved to signal routine. Notices referenced efforts to catalogue bodies in crowded morgues and to prepare schools for a phased reopening, part of a wider attempt to project a resumption of daily administration after two years of war.

Coercion alongside control

The show of authority has carried a coercive edge. Videos shared on local channels in recent days depicted hooded men being executed in busy markets—acts Hamas framed as punishment for wartime collaboration and profiteering—as well as kneecappings of suspected offenders. The images evoked the movement’s ruthless consolidation of power in 2007 and sent a deterrent message to rival clans that gained ground while Hamas fighters were underground.

Israel’s claims of military gains, and Gaza’s toll

Israel says its campaign has shattered Hamas’s military capabilities, killing senior commanders, depleting rocket stocks and collapsing large sections of the tunnel network. Local health officials say more than 67,000 Palestinians were killed during the two-year war, including thousands of children; Israel has not provided a full breakdown of combatants versus civilians. Israeli intelligence estimates have cited significant tunnel losses, but acknowledge remnants of the network and armed cadres remain.

Cease-fire plan meets street reality

The re-emergence on the streets complicates the political track set out in Washington’s 20-point plan, which ties a phased Israeli withdrawal to Hamas disarmament, the arrival of an international stabilization force and the installation of a technocratic Palestinian administrative body with outside oversight. Hamas has signalled willingness to step back from overt governance but has avoided commitments to disarm. By resurfacing uniformed police and sweeping aside rivals, the movement appears intent on retaining the “means of enforcement” even if civilian ministries are fronted by nonpartisan figures.

A stabilization force faces a mandate test

For mediators, sequencing now looks harder. Any stabilization force will require a robust mandate—and local consent—to avoid being cast as an occupying presence while confronting or coexisting with armed networks that currently police neighbourhoods. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition faces internal pressure over the pace and conditions of withdrawal; hard-right partners oppose concessions that could cement Hamas’s survival in any form.

Life between order and fear

On Gaza’s shattered streets, many residents say the visible presence of traffic police and armed patrols brings a degree of predictability after months of chaos, even as it reintroduces the fear that accompanied Hamas rule before the war. Aid groups warn that basic services will still hinge on border access, electricity and funding streams subject to outside politics—constraints any local authority will struggle to overcome quickly.

What to watch next

What happens next will hinge on three moving parts: whether Israel ties further pullbacks to verifiable demilitarization steps rather than appearances; whether an international force arrives with clear rules and real authority; and whether a credible, non-factional administration can deliver services without relying on Hamas muscle. Absent progress on those fronts, analysts say the cease-fire risks hardening into a familiar pattern—periods of enforced calm under the same guns, punctuated by the next shock.