Scientists urge swift planning after identifying an asteroid that could destroy a city. This asteroid may strike the Moon in 2032. The asteroid, 2024 YR4, is estimated to be 55 metres wide. Initial calculations suggested a 3.1 per cent chance of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032.
That probability has now dropped to around 0.28 per cent. However, astronomers caution there remains a 4 per cent chance of a collision with the Moon in the same year.
Why is the Moon at Risk?
A lunar strike would not directly endanger people on Earth. Instead, it could launch debris into orbit, endangering satellites, space stations and astronauts. The resulting hazards could disrupt global communications and planned lunar exploration.
Who is Leading the Research?
Scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California have studied possible responses to such a threat. Their research suggests that, depending on circumstances, a nuclear explosive device could deflect or destroy the asteroid before impact.
Possible Methods of Defence
The scientists outlined one potential method of defence. If a nuclear device were detonated near the asteroid, it could be destroyed or diverted. Although such an approach has been modelled, it has not yet been tested in practice. Early action is crucial because planning and coordination would take years.
The Race Against Time
The researchers emphasise that prompt planning and decisive action will be essential if such measures are ever required. NASA and ESA track thousands of near-Earth objects, but experts say stronger investment in detection and mitigation is urgently needed.
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