Newly discovered asteroid with 100x Hiroshima bomb power may hit Earth in 2032—What are the odds of its collision?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth on 2 December 2032. This space rock, as large as the Statue of Liberty, holds significant destructive potential. Scientists are closely tracking its path as the chances of impact rise.

Astronomers discovered 2024 YR4 in December 2023 using NASA-funded telescopes. Initially, the impact chance was 1.2%, but recent calculations raised it to 2.3%. This means a one in 43 chance of collision, making it a serious concern.

NASA and the European Space Agency track thousands of asteroids. However, 2024 YR4 is the only one with over 1% impact probability. It currently ranks 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The last asteroid to receive a higher rating was later deemed non-threatening.

Potential Impact and Destruction
If 2024 YR4 strikes, the explosion could reach 15 megatons of TNT. This force is 100 times greater than the Hiroshima bomb. The impact zone could experience devastation within a 5.7 km radius. Severe damage may extend up to 8.8 km, with fatalities as far as 19 km.
A direct hit on London could flatten areas from Westminster to Croydon. A strike on Manchester, Belfast, or Edinburgh could cause massive destruction. Even smaller cities would suffer catastrophic damage over several miles.