An underwater volcano deep beneath the Pacific may erupt any time this year

Axial is part of a hotspot, where magma rises from deep Earth. But unlike most hotspots, it also sits between two tectonic plates. These are the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates, slowly pulling apart. Their movement increases pressure below the crust and fuels volcanic activity.

No danger to people, but still valuable science

Despite its activity, Axial poses no real risk to humans. It’s too far from land and too deep underwater. Even a strong eruption wouldn’t be noticed by ships above it. “You could be right over it and not realise,” said Chadwick.

Still, scientists see it as a rare research chance. Since Axial’s eruptions don’t threaten lives, forecasts can be tested safely. “We can practise predicting eruptions without big consequences,” said Scott Nooner, a geophysics professor at the University of North Carolina Wilmington.

Forecasting eruptions remains a difficult task

Volcano forecasting is still far from perfect. Magma behaves in complex and changing ways beneath the crust. Nooner said, “It’s harder than weather forecasting, which is already hard.”

Short-term warnings — just hours before eruptions — are improving. But longer-term predictions are often inaccurate. That’s why Axial Seamount is useful. Its repeated eruptions give scientists patterns to learn from, without risking public safety or wasting resources.

Chadwick has studied Axial for 30 years. It erupted in 1998, 2011 and 2015. Now, he and his team believe the next one could happen any time before the year ends. Until then, they continue to watch, measure and listen to the ocean floor — waiting for the volcano’s next move.