Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iran this week, close on the heels of US President Joe Biden’s four-day trip to the Middle East, has generated much interest and speculation in diplomatic circles in the region and beyond.
In Tehran, Putin engaged in detail with the Iranian leadership, and later, also held a trilateral meeting that included Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the Syrian peace process.
It is the timing of the Russian President’s visit to Iran that is most significant. This was Putin’s first visit outside the territory of the erstwhile Soviet Union since the Ukraine war. The fact that his visit was beyond a bilateral engagement with Iran, and also included a trilateral meeting with Turkey on Syria, shows that despite the US and European countries’ attempt to marginalise him at the international stage, he continues to be a key factor for peace in the Middle East.
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Importantly, his visit to Tehran came within days of the US-initiated Middle East Air Defense (MEAD) that seeks close cooperation between Israel and the Arab states was put in place against the threat Iran poses to the region.
Though the Biden administration has highlighted this as a major foreign policy achievement, experts have raised questions on whether the mistrust between the Arab nations and Israel and technological differences between the two sides can make MEAD effective. A more realistic goal for Israel was to share more intelligence with Arab states, conduct tabletop exercises together, and perhaps even purchase additional compatible weaponry, they said.
Other observers have raised concern whether an attempted anti-Shia alliance will bring peace or deepen the existing mistrust between Iran and its neighbours and encourage more terrorist activities in the region.
Putin’s presence in Iran at this juncture boosts Teheran’s morale and underlines the strong military, economic and energy cooperation that has developed between the two countries in recent years. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had visited Moscow in January but the Ukraine war, seen as Putin’s contest with the West, has further brought Iran and Russia closer.
The cooperation between the two countries had begun during the Syrian war when they successfully prevented the US and its regional allies from attempting to throw out the Bashar-al-Assad regime. The two now enjoy a mutually beneficial relationship and a close strategic partnership that shows a major shift in the geo-politics of the region brought about by the severe sanctions and the US and European nations’ attempt to isolate Russia and Iran.
Teheran has supported Moscow on the Ukraine war and the two have deepened cooperation in the economic sector to circumvent the US and western sanctions. Their cooperation on security, energy and geo-economic policies has even further strengthened bilateral ties.
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Russia has expressed its desire to develop Iran’s oil and gas industry and sell it advanced air defence system and fighter jets. Iran wants to sell it drones and train the Russian military personnel to use them.
The crux of their deep strategic partnership is to challenge and disrupt the US’ attempt to put in place a regional order that will favour the West.
Though the focus of Putin’s visit to Tehran has been largely limited to the growing Russo-Iranian relations, the Russian President’s trip to the region soon after that of Biden’s is also a signal to Washington that Russia will not be easily dislodged from the Middle East.
Though Russia’s presence in the region was felt in the wake of the Arab Spring when the monarchies and close US allies felt threatened because of Washington’s indifference in saving their regimes, its footsteps had grown after the 2015 Syrian war when it was seen as a reliable partner.
In recent years, Russia has managed to build strong partnerships with a number of countries in the region, including those known to be close US allies, through energy, trade, security and cultural cooperation.
Significantly, along with Russia’s growing presence in the region, China, another American adversary, has also managed to increase its footprint in the Middle East in recent years.
Apart from huge investment in infrastructure development under its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, China has also entered into a comprehensive strategic partnership with not only countries like Iran, but also Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Like Russia, China has also managed to develop close ties with America’s closest allies in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and even Israel.
During his recent visit, Biden said the US was “here to stay” in the Middle East and it will not allow either Russia or China to have a free-run in the region.
The geo-political scenario in the region has fundamentally changed in the past decade. Though the US will continue to be an important player in the region, it will no longer be the sole arbiter for the Middle East. Russia and China’s presence will allow more options for the Arab States to drive better bargains and safeguard their interests.
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