Vowing to retaliate against the weekend airstrike, Israel on Tuesday issued a stern warning against Iran and said it would not get off 'scot-free with this aggression'. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spent the last two days holding a series of elaborate discussions and debates with his immediate war cabinet zeroing in on the best possible ways to respond to Iran.
From launching aggressive strikes and targeted assassinations to conducting a cyberattack on Iran's infrastructure, Israel is weighing a set of options calibrated to achieve different strategic outcomes, according to an NYT report. As the war cabinet — comprising Netanyahu, minister of defense Yoav Gallant, and former Chief of the General Staff Benny Gantz — deliberated upon the apt military response, countries across the globe have urged Israel to show restraint.
Israel-Iran ties, which turned sour after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, reached a new low after an Israeli airstrike in Damascus on April 1 which claimed the lives of two Iranian generals. Two weeks later, Iran responded by sending hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel. The salvo involved over 300 missiles and drones, 99% of which, according to the Israel military, were intercepted with the help of the US, the UK, France and Jordan.
Iran won't get off scot-free: Israel
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rear admiral Daniel Hagari said on Tuesday the nation cannot stand still from this kind of aggression and added, "Iran would not get off scot-free with this aggression".
According to officials, Israel does not want Iran to conclude that it can now attack Israeli territory in response to an Israeli strike on Iranian interests in a third country. But at the same time, they added, Israel does not want and cannot afford a major conflict with Iran while still fighting a war in Gaza and skirmishing with Iranian proxies along its borders.
The Israeli war cabinet, the officials said, is considering big options to send out a clear message to Iran that such attacks will not go unanswered. However, the actions would not be strong enough to spark a major escalation.
Officials revealed that at least two members of the cabinet argued at the time of the Iranian attack that Israel should respond immediately. But for reasons that still remain unclear, no strike took place on Sunday following the Iranian attack. The war cabinet discussions are shrouded in secrecy and riven by old rivalries and distrust.
What are Israel's options & their downsides
The officials, according to the NYT report, described the following options along with their downsides, which Israeli leaders can consider:
Conduct an aggressive strike on an Iranian target, such as an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base, in a country other than Iran like Syria. In this case, the drawback is that it lacks the symmetry of responding to a direct attack on Israel with a direct attack on Iran.
Strike a mostly symbolic target inside Iran. Such a move would likely require US consultation and would risk angering the Americans who have advised against such a strike.
Conduct a cyberattack on Iranian infrastructure. However, doing so could expose Israel's cyber capabilities prematurely and would not be an in-kind response to a major airstrike.
Accelerate small attacks inside Iran, including targeted assassinations, carried out by the Mossad. But, because Israel does not claim responsibility for such attacks they fail to match the public nature of Iran's weekend strike.
Adopting a more diplomatic approach, including a boycott of Iran by the United Nations Security Council.
How Israel's allies plan on punishing Iran?
US treasury secretary Janet L Yellen said that the Biden administration is considering ways to further restrict Iranian oil imports.
"The United States is also backing diplomatic efforts to pressure and punish Iran, including by imposing tougher sanctions on the country in the coming days," Yellen said without elaborating on the penalties.
Additionally, US is also looking at ways to cut off Iran's access to military components that it uses to build weapons such as the drones that it launched toward Israel over the weekend, according to a Treasury official, who declined to be named.
A top European Union diplomat said the EU is considering expanding economic sanctions against Iran's weapons programme to punish it for the weekend attack on Israel and try to prevent any escalation of violence across the Middle East.
"I'm not trying to exaggerate when I say that, in the Middle East, we are at the edge of a very deep precipice," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell Fontelles said.
What happens in case of a counterattack?
Iran has pledged a much tougher response to any Israeli counterattack attack on its soil.
According to Raz Zimmit, a research fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies who focuses on Iran, Israel must consider how Iran will respond, since they have made it very clear that Israeli retaliation will be met with an even harsher reaction.
American officials have openly argued that Netanyahu can 'take the win' earned by a successful defense against the Iranian onslaught, which caused minimal damage and injured just one person. But the officials have said they understand Israeli officials believe they must respond to a direct strike from Iran on Israel in a way that the world can see.
According to the officials, a covert operation against Iran would most likely not be enough to 'satisfy Netanyahu's coalition partners or the current Israeli government'.
US officials have made it clear that American warplanes and naval vessels would again come to the defence of Israel in case a counterattack prompts another round of Iranian airstrike.
Major risks of a retaliatory strike by Israel
If Israel chooses to launch a direct strike on Iran, it will most certainly spark a full-scale regional war. A strong retaliatory strike is likely to result in a brutal counterattack and risk prompting Hezbollah to launch further attacks. The Iranian-backed Lebanese group has a far more powerful arsenal than Hamas.
A direct conflict would also further stretch Israel's military, remove its focus from Gaza and hamper Israel's war-wearied economy.
Tamar Hermann, a polling expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, said most Israelis are in favour of some sort of military response as long as it is coordinated with regional allies, according to a report on AP.
"If it is done with no consultation and no agreement with allies ... support will be much smaller," he said.
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