Russian President Vladimir Putin, who skipped the BRICS summit in South Africa and the G20 meeting in India, has arrived in China for the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Putin’s visit is primarily to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRI meeting in Beijing from October 17 to 18.
Both have made common cause in fighting US domination and want to replace it with a multipolar order. Moreover, the Ukraine war and western sanctions on Russia have increased its dependence on Beijing.
This will be Putin and Xi’s fourth meeting since February 2022, when they announced their “no limits” partnership days before the Ukraine war. Their meeting at the BRI anniversary is likely to make them reiterate the issues they agreed on at their meeting in Moscow in March.
The Beijing meeting will be closely scrutinised for any discernible change in their approach. Putin comes to China when the Ukraine war has entered its 20th month without any shift in the US-led NATO coalition’s support for Kyiv.
Western backers of Ukraine have stepped up the supply of sophisticated weapons to Kyiv. But the Ukrainian army has been unable to achieve any significant breakthrough or win back territory from Russian control.
Ukraine negotiations
Observers said if the stalemate continues, it could change the mood in the west. More countries would then want to freeze the conflict and seek early resumption of negotiations.
Many western experts now see Russia as a ‘junior partner’ of China because of its growing dependence. They said China could force Russia to end the war and begin negotiations. If that happens, it would raise China’s diplomatic stock and help it to consolidate its economic footprint in Europe.
However, Indian diplomats argued that Russia will end the war only when its military objectives have been achieved. Any attempt to change Russia’s behaviour under duress could prove to be a disaster, they said.
Before arriving in Beijing, Putin visited Kyrgyzstan to attend the Commonwealth of Independent States’ summit. Leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan were also at the summit.
It was Putin’s first visit outside Russia this year. It signalled to critics who felt Russia’s grip over the CIS countries had weakened because of China’s growing footprint in the area that it continues to be within Moscow’s zone of influence.
The BRI summit is an attempt by China to put up a brave front in the wake of a slowdown in its economy and rising scepticism about the global infrastructure development initiative. Though 130 countries are attending the meeting in Beijing, many have become disillusioned about the BRI.
Italy, the first member of the Group of Seven (G-7) to join the BRI, has threatened to pull out because it failed to benefit the country. Bangladesh has expressed similar sentiments after it found BRI loans adding to the country's economic hardship.
There has also been a surge of defaults triggered by the pandemic and other factors in different countries. China is now rethinking how it invests overseas, with President Xi pushing to boost the profitability of the BRI projects.
However, despite the host of problems, BRI is the only inter-continental infrastructure initiative for countries to opt for better connectivity.
India’s viewpoint
India will stay away from the BRI anniversary meeting and had boycotted earlier meetings. India said the BRI projects in Pakistan that go through Jammu and Kashmir legitimises Islamabad’s illegal occupation of Indian territory.
Moreover, it has now become a key stakeholder in the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (MEEC), which proposes to link the subcontinent with Europe through West Asia. Many experts said the MEEC, backed by the US, is a rival to China’s BRI. However, the Israel-Hamas conflict has put off the project for now.
India is likely to watch the Xi-Putin meeting with interest but would not be worried about their growing closeness. New Delhi is confident that Sino-Russo ties are not being developed to jeopardise the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership that India and Russia enjoy.
External affairs minister S Jaishankar told a US audience last month that Indo-Russian ties have been one of the most stable partnerships for decades. India knows its growing strategic partnership with the US is not at the cost of Russia.
Similarly, it is confident that Moscow would not sacrifice New Delhi to please Beijing. The Russian leadership would continue to maintain strong ties with India as it provides a hedge against China. These calculations are unlikely to change very soon.
Putin did not attend the BRICS summit in South Africa in August as an International Criminal Court arrest warrant was pending against him for war crimes in Ukraine. South Africa is a signatory of the ICC and would have had to arrest Putin if he visited the country.
Putin also did not attend the G20 summit in New Delhi to avoid an awkward situation for India. His presence could have drawn attacks by western countries and spoiled the chance of a successful summit. Xi also stayed away from the G20 summit because of urgent political developments at home.
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