Left vs Right: With Jair Bolsonaro set to return, Brazil’s liberal President faces a dilemma

His son, Flavio Bolsonaro, a Senator in the Brazilian parliament, tweeted on Tuesday that his father will return to Brazil by March 15. But he subsequently deleted the tweet, saying the date of Bolsonaro’s return is yet to be confirmed.

Brazil had witnessed unprecedented violence and riots on January 8 when supporters of the former President stormed the Brazilian Congress, Supreme Court and the presidential Planalto Palace in capital Brasilia.

They even asked the military to intervene within days of Lula’s inauguration as the country’s new President.

The Lula administration also wants his return at the earliest. It wants Bolsonaro to appear before Brazilian courts and is looking for options to force him to return if he fails to come back to the country voluntarily by the end of this month.

A popular figure

Lula had been president of Brazil earlier for two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2010 and enjoyed widespread support and popularity for lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty and putting the country’s economy on a high growth path.

He also enjoyed the stature of a leading statesman on the international stage for his ability to mediate and build consensus on major global problems.

Lula’s Workers’ Party ruled until 2016 and when he left office he remained a very popular leader.

However, the subsequent bribery scandals against his party tarnished his image and forced him to spend a few years in jail, though he was found innocent of any wrongdoing and released.

Right wing unable to stomach loss

Bolsonaro’s supporters had been extremely upset since their leader lost last October’s presidential election to Lula in a close contest.

Bolsonaro had received 49.1 percent of the votes, which clearly shows how sharply polarised Brazil currently is between leftists and the right-wing.

Since October, the former President’s supporters have held a series of protests and demonstrations in different parts of the country to contest the election results, putting up blockades on major highways and approaches to airports, causing disruptions to normal life in Brazil.

They even sat outside army barracks pleading for military intervention to nullify the presidential election results that gave Lula a narrow victory over Bolsonaro.

Though Brazil has a long history of being under military rule, this time the army top brass was not interested in intervening, ignoring the fact that Bolsonaro was a former army captain.

Bolsonaro was not in the country during the violent protests by his supporters. However, he had been instigating the unrest by raising questions on the credibility of the electronic voting machines.

He had initially accepted the election results but subsequently decided to use social media to hint that the presidential poll was manipulated in Lula’s favour.

When will Bolsonaro return?

Bolsonaro told the Wall Street Journal in an interview that he would return home to lead the opposition against his left-wing rival. He said he would work to elect conservatives in next year’s municipal elections and would himself run for senator or President.

Bolsonaro had left for the US even before his term ended in January and subsequently had applied for a six-month tourist visa after arriving in the country on a diplomatic visa.

This has led to speculation that he may delay his return to Brazil by a few more months.

The Brazilian Supreme Court is investigating if Bolsonaro had a role in the January riots in Brasilia.

So far, hundreds of people have been arrested for the unrest and the police were conducting further raids in different parts of the country to catch anyone who was involved in the violence.

Lula’s challenge

Though Bolsonaro has condemned the riots and argued that he was not in the country when it happened, he is likely to be questioned by authorities when he returns.

If he is found guilty, he may be ineligible to run for elections in future — a possibility that is being dreaded by his supporters and also the Lula administration.

Bolsonaro said he wanted to fight for traditional values and freedom of speech — the latter a protest against Lula’s attempt to introduce greater controls on social media.

The Supreme Court also supports Lula’s proposal to build international actions against “brainwashing” by far-right social media sites.

Most observers believe Bolsonaro’s return will bolster the conservative movement in Brazil.

But the emerging scenario has put the Lula administration in a bind. Lula has promised that he will take action against all those who participated in the “insurrection” against his government. This means he will also have to take action against Bolsonaro for instigating the riots.

If he allows him immunity for the January violence, he will not only disappoint his own supporters and the larger leftist bloc in the country but empower the former president and his right-wing supporters to step up protests against the government’s liberal policies.

On the other hand, stringent action against Bolsonaro could lead his supporters to rally in large numbers and sharpen the existing polarisation in the country.

In the past, Lula has been able to resolve many challenges that he and his country faced. How he deals with the situation after Bolsonaro returns will perhaps be his biggest political challenge.