Embattled Sharif govt looks to curtail chances of Imran Khan returning to power through arrest in Toshakhana case

It is also possible that Khan may appear before the Court voluntarily in the next few days to avoid further trouble.

But the attempt to arrest him is being seen as a move to keep him out of the public domain for some time, especially as TV channels have been prevented from covering his speeches and rallies.

Much of this stems from the growing apprehension in the Shehbaz Sharif-led government that if Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) wins both provinces it could set the template for his sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections too.

The Supreme Court and the Election Commission support holding the Assembly elections on April 30. But the Sharif government is extremely unhappy over this prospect and the expected outcome of these polls.

Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League party is trying to contest the election dates and want to hold them later ― possibly in October-November ― as part of the general elections.

Parliament elections in Pakistan are held under a caretaker administration and not the ruling party’s supervision. The caretaker regime is set two months before parliament elections.

But this poses a problem if Assembly elections in KPK and Punjab are held in April. It will then have elected governments in the two provinces, while the rest of the country will be under the caretaker government’s supervision until parliamentary elections are held.

The possibility of the PTI-led governments in these provinces can work in favour of Imran Khan. Therefore, the Sharif government is trying to convince the army establishment that Assembly elections and parliamentary elections be held together, and not separately.

He may use the prevailing condition in the country, where street protests and demonstrations are held regularly, as an excuse of deteriorating law and order situation that is not conducive to holding Assembly elections at this juncture.

One reason why the Progressive Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition led by Sharif is reluctant for an early election in the country is that it feels the economic situation may improve later this year.

If that happens, it might provide the ruling party a chance to challenge Khan’s popularity that is largely based on people’s resentment against the government and the poor condition of the economy.

But observers doubt that the situation will improve and argue that the government will keep losing political ground in the face of soaring inflation, skyrocketing energy and fuel prices and a worsening economy.

“Indeed, if salvaging the economy was one of the key justifications for the PDM government to hang on to power, it is now wearing thin,” says Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, Maleeha Lodhi.

She adds in her column in the Dawn newspaper that the economy is in meltdown mode, the IMF deal remains elusive, the rupee is in freefall, and the market and business confidence are at all-time lows.

“International rating agencies have again begun to warn that Pakistan might default on its sovereign debt,” Lodhi said.

Sharif’s problems are compounded not only by the worsening economy but also a growing dissatisfaction among his coalition partners, particularly the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

The PPP’s departure from the coalition at this juncture could force parliamentary elections to be held at the earliest, maybe within two to three months.

For the government, the increasing number of terrorist attacks by the Taliban Tehrik-e- Pakistan (TTP) over the past months have raised serious questions about the ruling regime’s ability to deal with the growing threat.

Some observers however, speculate whether the deteriorating political situation in view of the “dog-fight” between the government and Imran Khan’s PTI will finally force the army to intervene to save the situation.

However, unlike in the past, the army’s image in the country has taken a serious beating following a series of accusations from across the political spectrum about its meddling in politics as a major reason for Pakistan’s current mess.

But if the current political instability continues and the economic crisis deepens it could change the public mood in favour of an army intervention to prevent the situation from worsening further.

As observers both, within and outside, continue to draw various outcomes for Pakistan, another long spell of political instability is turning out to be their popular verdict.