Credit Suisse shares hit record low as CEO fails to calm markets

Koerner’s memo was the second straight Friday missive as speculation over the beleaguered bank’s future increases. Analysts at KBW estimated that the firm may need to raise 4 billion Swiss francs ($4 billion) of capital even after selling some assets to fund any restructuring, growth efforts and any unknowns.

Credit Suisse’s market capitalization dropped to around 10 billion Swiss francs, meaning any share sale would be highly dilutive to longtime holders. The market value was above 30 billion francs as recently as March 2021.

Credit Suisse executives have noted that the firm’s 13.5% CET1 capital ratio at June 30 was in the middle of the planned range of 13% to 14% for 2022. The firm’s 2021 annual report said that its international regulatory minimum ratio was 8%, while Swiss authorities required a higher level of about 10%.

The five-year credit default swaps price of about 250 basis points is up from about 55 basis points at the start of the year and is near their highest on record. While these levels are still far from distressed and are part of a broad market selloff, they signify deteriorating perceptions of creditworthiness for the scandal-hit bank in the current environment.

The KBW analysts were the latest to draw comparisons to the crisis of confidence that shook Deutsche Bank AG six years ago. Then, the German lender was facing broad questions about its strategy as well as near-term concerns about the cost of a settlement to end a US probe related to mortgage-backed securities. Deutsche Bank saw its credit-default swaps climb, its debt rating downgraded and some clients step back from working with it.

The stress eased over several months as the German firm settled for a lower figure than many feared, raised about 8 billion euros ($7.8 billion) of new capital and announced a strategy revamp. Still, what the bank called a “vicious circle” of declining revenue and rising funding costs took years to reverse.

There are differences between the two situations. Credit Suisse doesn’t face any one issue on the scale of Deutsche Bank’s $7.2 billion settlement, and its key capital ratio of 13.5% is higher than the 10.8% that the German firm had six years ago.

The stress Deutsche Bank faced in 2016 resulted in the unusual dynamic where the cost of insuring against losses on the lender’s debt for one year surpassed that of protection for five years. Credit Suisse’s one-year swaps are still significantly cheaper than five-year ones.

Credit Suisse Group CDS Widens 42 Bps: 12 Signals Since Sept. 16

Last week, Credit Suisse said it’s working on possible asset and business sales as part of its strategic plan which will be unveiled at the end of October. The bank is exploring deals to sell its securitized products trading unit, is weighing the sale of its Latin American wealth management operations excluding Brazil, and is considering reviving the First Boston brand name, Bloomberg has reported.