Assad’s fall after 24-year rule in Syria risks more Middle East chaos

“Chaos is expected in transitions and so is factional — even bloody — competition,” said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University and an associate fellow at Chatham House. “Syria has not been its normal self for over a decade now, divided into enclaves and spheres of influence on top of socioeconomic and political decay.”

The onset of Syria’s conflict in 2011 displaced millions of people, sparking a migrant crisis that still reverberates in European politics today. Its Middle East neighbors, meanwhile, are already grappling with the fallout from Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza and fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Russia has military bases in Syria and will seek to protect its interests. But the Kremlin is occupied by its war in Ukraine. Iran, which has traded direct attacks with Israel in recent months, is also weakened. Arab officials, though, don’t expect the Islamic Republic to give up its influence in Syria without a fight.

The pace of the events that unseated Assad after more than 50 years of his family in power was stunning. A little over a week ago, his survival seemed almost a foregone conclusion. Then insurgents led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham captured the crucial cities of Aleppo and Hama, before closing in on Homs and Damascus, the capital.

On Sunday morning, rebels seized control of the television station and hailed the “fall of the criminal Assad regime.” Assad decided to step down and left the country, Russia’s foreign ministry later said.

The rebel advance unwound a stalemate in Syria, which had seen Assad’s forces backed by Moscow and Tehran claw back control of most of the country, with the exception of a rebel stronghold in the northwest and a Kurdish stronghold in the northeast.

It unleashed a political situation in which much remains uncertain – not least the nature of the new government forming in Damascus. It’s also unclear whether that leadership will be able to govern the war-torn country at all.

The mood reflected those concerns on Sunday night as a curfew was imposed and several buildings housing security agencies and the passport and immigration authority were consumed by flames, with locals speculating about Israeli strikes.

“The fear today is that all the factions are united against one enemy but they will eventually be consumed by infighting,” said Bahjat Hajjar, co-founder of an NGO called Madaniya who fled Damascus shortly after 2011 due to his opposition to the Assads.

Speaking at a conference in Bahrain on Sunday Anwar Gargash, adviser to United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed, warned of threats to Syria’s territorial integrity, an ongoing “spiral of chaos and violence” in the Arab world, and the prospect of “extremism and terrorism.” Saudi Arabia, which is involved in efforts to shape the transition period in Syria, issued a statement on Sunday warning against “chaos and division.”

US President-elect Trump, meanwhile, made one thing clear: America won’t intervene to stop that from happening. In a post on social media platform X on Saturday, Trump wrote, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend.”

The US designates the rebel group HTS, which formed an alliance with al-Qaeda more than a decade ago, a terrorist organization. HTS has since sought to project itself as a force for unity, but many US and Middle Eastern officials are doubtful.

“The guys who are taking over are terrorists, but they’re sending some interesting messaging,” said Jason Greenblatt, a former Middle East envoy in Trump’s first administration. “If they realize Trump means business and is not going to tolerate that and is hopefully going to galvanize the region to fight against terrorism, they ought to figure out a way to comply.”

Still, the risks and opportunities presented by an unstable Syria have drawn in myriad foreign powers since 2011 and look likely to continue to do so.

More than a decade of conflict has left between 300,000 to 500,000 people dead, decimated cities and pushed much of its population into poverty. The World Bank has estimated that Syria’s economy shrank by more than a half by 2020 from its prewar level of around $60 billion.

According to UNDP data, employment rose to nearly 50% as of 2020 and Syria’s human development index rolled back 35 years because of faltering education and health services. There were reports of looting following the declaration that Assad’s government had fallen.

Turkey is likely to seek to capitalize on opportunities created by Assad’s fall after 24 years to repatriate the millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey. To that end, Ankara has urged a peaceful transition of power.

“We’ve been working for the stability of Syria for a long time — we are familiar with the actors,” Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan told media at a forum in Doha on Sunday. “We have to work together with Syrian people, not only Turkey but also regional actors, the international actors, to make sure that there is a good and smooth transition period.”

In another development, Israeli ground forces overtly crossed into Syrian territory for the first time since the 1973 October War, the New York Times reported, citing two Israeli officials.

That’s as Iran finds itself on the defensive. The same goes for Russia, which is now needed to preserve some stability without Assad, according to Elena Suponina, a Moscow-based Middle East expert.

“Syrian euphoria could help engender the kind of unity we need to see,” said Charles Lister, senior fellow and director of the Syria Program at the Middle East Institute. “But after 14 years of ferocious conflict and division, the hill ahead is steep.”