The government has sought to assuage concerns about drought this year by saying that with India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting a normal monsoon it is unlikely that the crop pattern and rural economy will be impacted.
“El Nino will form in the second half of the monsoon. crop pattern will not be impacted, it will not be a worry. The rural economy will not be impacted in the first two months of the monsoon. No change in crop sowing pattern will be needed as monsoon is expected to be normal,” M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, told Moneycontrol.
IMD has forecast 83.5 cm of rainfall, which is 96 percent (+/-5 percent) of the long-period average (LPA).
On the other hand, private weather forecaster Skymet on April 10 said the rainfall is likely at 94 percent of the LPA.
While the wind pattern changes will be disturbed, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the less snow cover over the northern hemisphere are favourable for the monsoon. “That’s why only in the second half of the monsoon rainfall will be lesser than normal,” Ravichandran said.
El Nino, the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters close to South America, is linked to a weakening of the monsoon winds and decreased rainfall in India. The difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern portions of the Indian Ocean, close to Africa and Indonesia, is used to define the IOD.
What IMD says
“The moderate El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon. All El Nino years are not bad monsoon years. About 40 percent of the El Nino years in the past were years with normal or above normal monsoon rainfall,” M Mohapatra, IMD's director general of meteorology, said.
However, normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of northwest India, parts of west-central India and some pockets of northeast India, he said.
Expert’s take
On the other hand, agriculture expert Devinder Sharma said there is not much difference between the two forecasts of IMD and Skymet at 94 percent and 96 percent of the LPA. Skymet has said that the rainfall starting at 94 percent of the LPA will reduce to 92 percent in August and to 90 percent in September.
“It is worrisome as these months are important for paddy grain filling. Farmers need rain at that time else it may impact paddy crop,” Sharma told Moneycontrol.
Punjab and Haryana may be insulated because of irrigation facilities but in Uttar Pradesh, farmers may face problems as their livelihoods are impacted by the monsoon, he said.
“Farming community may see a double whammy because of the excess rain during the wheat season and now expected shortfall of rain during the Kharif season. The crop will be impacted; however, the exact shortfall in rain needs to be seen,” he said.
Rabi crops were destroyed by unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March, which cost thousands of farmers their livelihoods. The administration asserted that despite the unseasonal rains, wheat production was unaffected.
Farmers do try and act according to the monsoon forecasts and thus they are necessary. “Farmers are aware that rainfall will be less this year as the monsoon has been good for the last three years. The pattern of sowing will not change unless the rainfall is less at the time of sowing,” Sharma said.
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