Recent Chennai floods brought forward glaring lapses in information circulation with respect to weather forecast and inconsistencies with weather prediction.
These shortcomings can be rectified as per Dr C Balaji, Professor of Mechanical Engineering, IIT Madras as he has a completely new approach to weather forecasting.
His confidence stems from an IBM developed supercomputer called Virgo. This computer commissioned by IIT Madras is the fastest computer in any Indian academic institution and one of its primary objective is to collect satellite data that will enhance the accuracy of weather predictions.
Virgo enables researchers at IIT Madras to accurately study data from several past cyclones and monsoons. This data is then coupled with real-time satellite data to enhance the quality of weather forecasting.
Dr Balaji believes that this will change weather forecasting, as the current system works on traditional numeric method by launching sensors attached on weather balloons to study weather patterns.
Introducing a satellite into the equation will enhance accuracy and add an extra dimension to weather forecasting.
"If we get some measurement from these satellites, which are closer to the truth, can we inject some of this information related to atmospheric thermodynamics or radiation into this numerical model, and correct the model? We should be in a better position to forecast cyclones," he said.
Virgo interprets the combined data streams from numerous satellite feeds and enables forecasters to predict the place and time of a storm within few hours with improved accuracy.
"The state of the art is: how many hours of computational time is required to predict an event in the next 72 hours? In the case of Virgo, we can predict a cyclone for the next 72 hours with 4-6 hours of simulation," Balaji further said.
IIT’s methodology will be put to test as part of the Ministry of Earth Sciences’ national monsoon mission with the aim to better predict monsoons and provide citizens enough lead time to prepare for disasters like floods and cyclones.
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