Gurugram’s booming real estate sector has come under sharp scrutiny, with a leading market analyst warning that the city’s property market resembles a “house of cards” teetering on the edge of collapse. In a video posted last month on X (formerly Twitter), real estate analyst Vishal Bhargava detailed the structural vulnerabilities underpinning the region’s housing boom and raised red flags about the ongoing liquidity crisis and rampant speculative trading.
“Gurugram’s real estate market is now a house of cards,” Bhargava declared in the widely-circulated clip. “All it needs is a small push for many projects to crumble.” His stark assessment was directed towards prospective homebuyers in the city, cautioning them about the overheated property landscape. The post has since garnered close to 1.9 million views and triggered extensive discussion online.
According to Bhargava, the surge in home prices since 2021 has been driven less by real demand and more by what he termed “dangerous speculation.” He pointed out that property rates in Gurugram have tripled in the last three years, far outpacing rental growth and long-term value indicators.
To illustrate his point, Bhargava compared Gurugram with Bengaluru—another major urban real estate hub. “Rents in both cities are similar, but property prices in Gurugram are about 30 percent higher,” he said. “There is a short and medium-term goal in Gurugram real estate. The short-term goal is that the project launch must sell out on day one. The medium-term goal is that home prices must keep rising.”
He argued that, unlike cities such as Mumbai or Bengaluru—where most residential units are purchased by end-users or long-term investors—the Gurugram market is dominated by traders. These traders, he said, often book multiple properties at launch with minimal upfront capital and with no intention of taking possession.
“End users are as important as a script in a Salman Khan movie,” Bhargava remarked, criticising the prioritisation of short-term profits over sustainable housing development. “Builders love traders, and they offer three incentives to them. This is under a common scheme called the first transfer free.”
Explaining why developers prefer traders over conventional investors, he said, “If an investor has Rs 5 crore, he’ll probably buy one apartment for Rs 5 crore. But a trader who has Rs 5 crore will book five apartments of Rs 5 crore each, making an upfront payment of just Rs 1 crore per apartment. He doesn’t have the money. He’s just doing an F&O trade.”
Bhargava’s analogy to futures and options (F&O) trading—a highly speculative segment of the stock market—underscored the risks associated with Gurugram’s current housing model. In such a setup, multiple buyers with limited liquidity drive up demand artificially during the project launch, fuelling further speculation and price escalation.
The model, Bhargava warned, is unsustainable. He suggested that a sudden loss of confidence or a dip in liquidity could cause the entire system to unravel, leading to stalled projects, unsold inventory, and potential financial distress among developers and pseudo-investors.
His post struck a chord with many social media users, who flooded the comments section in agreement. Some echoed concerns about the speculative practices and called for stricter regulation and transparency in the sector. Others shared personal experiences of being priced out of the Gurugram housing market due to escalating costs and lack of supply for genuine end-users.
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