Multiplexes expect faster recovery as Bollywood announces its first release

Bollywood makes its big move

"Last year, big films were not announced, and only small and medium-size films were released. So, this film (Bell Bottom) will change the perception in the market and other studios will also make announcements. It will also have a big impact like Master had in the south. In January this year, when Master had released, it exceeded pre-pandemic level (box office numbers) despite 50 percent capacity in theatres. This is what Bell Bottom will do for Bollywood," Rajender Singh Jyala, Chief Programming Officer, INOX Leisure, told Moneycontrol.

He added that there are 15 big Bollywood movies waiting to be released in theatres along with 35-40 medium-size films that are in the pipeline.

Amit Sharma, Managing Director, Miraj Cinemas, names some of them: Akshay Kumar's Sooryavanshi, Ranveer Singh's 83 and Jayeshbhai Jordaar, Laal Singh Chaddha, Prithviraj, Atrangi Re, RRR (Hindi), Jersey and Satyameva Jayate 2, among others.

"In the first reopening, we could see a big-star Bollywood release only in March this year with John Abraham's Mumbai Saga hitting the theatres. This year, cinemas in Maharashtra have allowed partial reopening and Punjab has also given the go ahead for theatres to reopen. So, a big-ticket film like Bell Bottom releasing in the early reopening phase, paves the way for other big films to line up releases week-on-week," said Sharma.

Both Sharma and INOX's Jyala also explain why Bollywood is key for their business.

For INOX and Miraj Cinemas, Bollywood contributes over 60 percent of the overall box office collections. Therefore, Jyala said that there will be faster recovery this year.

"We expect all cinemas in India to reopen by mid-July," he said.

Karan Taurani, Vice-President, Elara Capital concurs. He said that markets like Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat contribute almost 65 percent to Hindi box office collections.

He added that this time fewer films have opted for direct over the top (OTT) release with 10-12 Hindi films taking the direct to digital release route as against around 23 Hindi movies that avoided the cinema release route during the first wave.

The international interest

Taurani also pointed out another aspect.

"Overseas market recovery has been better on faster vaccination. Producers have realized this. Hence, Bell Bottom's release has been announced. Overseas collections for big Hindi films account for around 15-18 percent of revenues," he said.

According to reports, Hollywood ventures that have released overseas like The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, have minted USD 111.8 million from 45 markets in two weeks. What’s more, it is yet to be released in 18 more markets!

Another horror-venture A Quiet Place II which hit the theatres on May 28 has so far collected over USD 184 million worldwide.

International markets opening will be a relief for both producers and exhibitors in India as this will give the producers confidence to release more films, which in turn will help cinemas get more content.

Last year, overseas theatricals had seen a bigger drop than domestic revenue as key markets like China, US, UK were impacted due to COVID-19.

International theatrical revenues in 2020 fell by 89 percent as against 78 percent fall in domestic theatrical revenues.

Although there are many factors that will help in better recovery of the exhibition sector as well as the film industry, there remain a few challenges.

Challenges remain

Taurani predicts that Bell Bottom will register lower collections at the box office.

He estimates a lifetime collection of Rs 75 crore for Bell Bottom, which is significantly low for an Akshay Kumar venture.

Taurani also expects that exhibitors will agree to a five to six percent higher distributor share as against an average distributor share of 47 percent for big films in the first three weeks.

"The higher distributor share will prevail for a few months until the situation stabilizes in terms of cinema footfall," he forecasted.

So, exhibitors will face many challenges despite reopening faster than last year and getting big Bollywood content due to occupancy cap, selective opening across states and with some of the audience taking time to return to the theatres.