Note to readers: China’s ruling Communist party (CCP) holds an important meeting every five years that has analysts and diplomats parsing for clues into the country’s future. The 20th party congress is due to be held in Beijing from 16 October. Here is the second of a series of interviews with Chinese experts and watchers in the run-up to the conference.
The first interview can be read here
The 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) beginning from October 16 onwards has generated global interest. Despite rumours of a palace coup in China that dominated social media over the past few days, Xi Jinping is steadily moving towards getting a record third term as CCP general secretary. However, it is not clear if this will allow him to continue for life as the party leader. A successor for Xi might be announced at the Party Congress.
Rana Mitter, a leading scholar and commentator on China, is Professor of History and Politics of Modern China at Oxford’s St Cross College. He is also Director of University China Centre, and authored a number of books, of which “China's Good War—How World War II is shaping a New Nationalism”, is the latest. His research interests are on modern East Asian History, Contemporary Chinese Politics and History of World War II in Asia.
He spoke to Pranay Sharma on Xi Jinping’s election as party general secretary for a record third time, China’s use of nationalist sentiments against neighbours and China’s relations with the United States and India. Edited excerpts:
Is Xi Jinping getting a third term in the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Congress now a done deal?
It seems very hard to see what would now get in the way of Xi Jinping obtaining a third term as leader. The ground has been prepared for years, and recent political moves have shown that even top leaders can be removed if they are politically problematic, notably Sun Lijun, a senior figure who just this week was sentenced to death (suspended) for corruption. There are no clearly visible alternative factions as there were in the 1990s, when leadership politics was a question of balancing various interest groups more openly.
Does it also mean Xi will be leader for life?
The extension of Xi’s rule is only for a third term of five years. However, there is now nothing to stop him from seeking further terms. However, his position is not the same as Putin’s. Xi is still leader by virtue of his position in the CCP, and the Party does need to be supportive of his continued rule. Of course, so far, he has done an effective job of making sure that the Party is controlled by people who he has promoted.
Why did the communist party agree to Xi’s third term despite the experience of excesses under Mao Zedong?
Xi Jinping has been effective at arguing that China has entered a “new era” which demands leadership that can operate outside the norms that were set up under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Various tasks, including the rise of China to economic dominance, or the unification with Taiwan, may take a longer period to accomplish than the standard 10 years. Xi’s ability to take a third term reflects the party’s willingness to take a longer view of Xi’s significance.
Is China’s fear of being contained by the US real and how is it likely to respond?
China is genuinely concerned by the prospect of the US containing it. This could be in many forms – recent official comments have spoken of concerns that technological progress might be curtailed by the ability of the US to allow top talent to come to China. China is seeking alternative pathways in many areas, from a rival to the global financial transfer system to a new interest in the Arctic. The major concern is to make sure that if China found itself sanctioned by the US, there would be alternative ways for China to continue its economic and security links with the wider world.
Also Read | Next 5 years may not be smooth for China, says Mary Gallagher
China’s war with Japan has been used to whip up nationalists’ sentiments in recent years. Is this directed against Japan or all ‘hostile’ neighbours?
China’s officials have been keener in recent years to show a more confrontational attitude toward countries that have expressed open objections to China’s rise: Australia and Japan are two examples. However, the message varies over time. Thus, in 2020, the 70th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War was used to send an anti-American message to the Chinese public. Other military anniversaries can be used to push back against other opponents.
What is China’s attitude to India and how will it deal with it?
China takes India seriously, but is far more concerned about the US as its major rival in the world, and sees Japan as a more immediate regional rival. However, China has become concerned about Indian involvement in the Quad grouping, and its move to exclude aspects of Chinese tech from India. China’s aim will be to try and make sure that India does not participate in any regional conflicts where China’s interests are directly at stake, eg in the South China Sea.
Has the Ukraine war, now in its eighth month, strained China’s relation with Russia? How does Beijing want it to end?
China probably did not know much about the details of the invasion ahead of time. However, it does not want to seem to be hostile to Russia in public, so any criticism is likely to be in private only. Beijing would like a swift end to the war, which would be better for the global economy, but also does not want Russia to become so weak that it faces the risk of being a failed state on the Chinese border.
Also Read | There is distrust in China about India’s strategic objective: Odd Arne Westad
Xi Jinping has asserted China’s place on the global stage more than other leaders. But how can he be sure China will get there?
Xi Jinping has a strong sense of confidence in himself as the vehicle for a new, stronger role for China in the world. He and his peers see the current global turbulence as events that could bring China to yet more prominence, assuming that China manages to strengthen its forces and build its economy. He believes that the current century is China’s, and that confidence helps him as he rules.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
