Chhattisgarh Assembly Polls 2018: 5 years and a third front later, how will NOTA votes pan out this election?

Seven out of these 17 seats, meanwhile, saw an interesting turn of events in that the NOTA votes were more than the difference between votes polled by candidates. For instance, Baikunthpur constituency saw the BJP candidate winning 45,471 votes against Congress’ 44,402, with a margin of 1,069 votes. On the other hand, the NOTA votes polled in the region were 3,265.

Five years and a third front later, how will these votes pan out in Chhattisgarh?

NOTA campaign 

This time, a concentrated NOTA campaign has been separately launched by Raipur-based Right to Information (RTI) activist Kunal Shukla to "teach a lesson to the BJP government".

"Our target is to go beyond the last assembly elections. This time, we plan to effect NOTA in more constituencies and in 15 legislative assemblies at least in future. We had done a similar campaign in Karnataka, and the BJP was defeated by NOTA due to this campaign," Shukla told Moneycontrol. The campaign is being spearheaded, according to Shukla, because "the BJP voters have been duped by its government".

"The government has betrayed its ideology," Shukla said. "Take, for instance, those who wanted Ram Mandir, or who hoped that Article 370 would be scrapped, or the voter who wanted Akhand Bharat and common civil code… all these people feel betrayed. And they can’t go to any other party. This campaign is for such voters," he added.

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"We are spreading the campaign through social media. In Raipur, we have created a WhatsApp group, and we are creating such groups in every booth with a regional head of the campaign. We will also form teams and propagate the campaign at every single booth by explaining to the people how this government has been dishonest with them," Shukla said, adding that the aim of the campaign is to "teach a lesson to those who have duped the upper castes and the Hindus".

Bhawesh Jha, a psephologist and a political observer, however, feels that the NOTA trend is ending.

"People who voted for NOTA last time around might not vote in the same numbers this time because they see an option now," Jha told Moneycontrol. The option being the recently announced Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)-Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) alliance.

The third-front factor 

Observers like Jha feel that the addition of the BSP-JCC combine into the equation in Chhattisgarh might transfer a chunk of the 2013 NOTA votes to the third front. This is especially since both BSP, led by Mayawati, and JCC, led by former Congress leader Ajit Jogi, have a considerable Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (SC/ST) influence.

"Whenever there’s a new combination, we have to see where the combination’s vote bank is. Since the BSP-JCC combine has the SC/ST voter base, the NOTA vote could be transferred," Jha said. "Plus, in places where NOTA was polled more are Maoist-affected areas, they tend to boycott elections. NOTA was introduced for the first time in 2013, perhaps people had used it as a way of boycott," he added.

Reports suggested that most of the NOTA votes during the 2013 assembly elections were polled in the Naxal-affected tribal belt of the state. For instance, in Bijapur, south Chhattisgarh, as many as 10.1 percent of voters chose NOTA over other candidates— it stood third in a battle between seven candidates in the region. The case repeated in Dharamjaigarh, an  ST constituency where NOTA stood third in a battle between eight candidates.

Also Read: Chhattisgarh Assembly Polls 2018: With phase 1 on November 12, let's see how the tribal belt votes

"See, NOTA doesn’t necessarily mean that the vote went against Congress or BJP as a party. It might have been influenced by local candidates, which the people chose to reject," said Amit Kumar Gupta, assistant professor of political science at Guru Ghasidas Central University in Bilaspur. "As far as the third front is concerned, it is not something new that has emerged. It is basically a part of the Congress. And I don’t think BSP will play as important a role as is being expected. Even in 2013, I don’t think people voted for the one BSP candidate on the basis of the party line. They voted for the candidate," Gupta said. "Ajit Jogi’s influence in tribal areas has been constant. And it’s still there, but it would be difficult to understand if the NOTA votes would be transferred solely on the basis of that," Gupta added.

Jha agreed, stating that for the past two years, ever since the party was formed, Ajit Jogi has been busy expanding his influence in the tribal areas and it might help him convert the NOTA voters into alliance voters.

Jogi, who formed JCC in 2016 after resigning from the Congress following the suspension of his son Amit Jogi for “anti-party” activities, is known to have a considerable sway over the Satnami community. The community has a dominant presence in 10 tribal seats in the state, nine out of which are being held by the BJP. "I think a lot of people are forgetting the fact that BJP is going to be equally at loss because of the BSP-JCC alliance. Even if the BSP-JCC alliance bags two or three seats out of those 10, that would matter to the BJP," Jha said.

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That said, Gupta reasoned, the NOTA voter can be a "floating" voter and his vote can go to any party. "In order to understand why NOTA was cast in such high numbers in 2013, I think the only option is to look at the reasons of individual voters who opted for NOTA. And that even the government is not allowed to do, let alone me and you," Gupta added.

Shukla, however, feels that the NOTA votes were cast in a large number because of the frustration of the people. "The only reason people voted for NOTA was the disillusionment with political parties and their false promises," Shukla said, adding that the BSP-JCC alliance would not change anything in the equation.

"In any case, the BSP vote share has been limited to 2-3 percent, which is not much," Shukla said. "As far as Jogi and his son are concerned, I don’t think they will even be able to contest elections after this," he added.