‘Cabinet reshuffle likely next wk; see populist budget‘

With key allies of the UPA government not conforming to the government's decisions to introduce its reform agenda, talks of a mid-term poll is doing the rounds. However, BSP leader Mayawati yesterday made her position clear and said she is in no hurry to withdraw support to the Congress led government. Meanwhile, NCP chief and agriculture minister Sharad Pawar alluded party workers about the possibility of a mid-term poll. Rajdeep Sardesai, Editor-In-Chief of CNN IBN feels both party leaders were only stating the obvious and keeping their parties ready for what may be a possibility.

According to Sardesai, there is very little chance of either Mayawati or Pawar withdrawing support from the government immediately. He believes, the Congress government is going to sustain for at least 6-12 months. In all probabilities, all the parties will be looking at the Union Budget and will take a decision thereafter, he opined.
Sardesai believes a populist budget is in the offing and the likelihood of a cabinet reshuffle next week remains alive. Here is the edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18. Q: What did you make of what came out from Sharad Pawar and Mayawati yesterday, is it really likely in your book that there is a possibility of early elections next year?
A: They are only stating the obvious, they are just keeping their party ready for what many believe is a possibility. Neither of them suggested that midterm polls will definitely happen but, they are keeping that option open.
I think it is partly positioning, partly compulsion in case of Mayawati. She wants to position herself as someone who now holds the reins of the government, the future of the government is dependent on her and thereby increase her own clout and bargaining power with the UPA. On the other hand, she has a compulsion that she cannot go in for a poll right away.
She knows that she is not prepared for it and she needs at least 6-12 months as a breathing space after her defeat in UP this year to get back her cadres to galvanize the caders once again. I think it was partly positioning, partly compulsion.
 
Ditto with Sharad Pawar. He is not leaving the UPA or going anywhere. He is just preparing his team for the possibility that somewhere in the next 6-12 months we will have an early election. People keep using this term midterm polls. The fact is this government does what? About 16 months to go before elections are declared.
Any poll that takes place say 12 months from now is not really a mid term poll as such. Effectively, despite what was said I do see this government at least for another 6-12 months having the oxygen to continue. Q: So you do not see anything happening before the Union Budget in 2013 which would have precipitated some kind of a move towards an election in 2013, you think we’ll at least have another budget?
A: That's right. I think the budget will be the next decisive movement for this government. There is a winter session where Mamata Banerjee is threatening to move a no confidence motion. But, the sense you got from what Mayawati said yesterday is she is not going to bring down this government on the floor of the house.
Mulayam too is unlikely to do that in the winter session. The sense one gets is that till the budget session or till at least the Union Budget, all the sides who are looking for an early election will still be waiting to see what happens in the budget and then make their next move. Certainly, the government has breathing space till the Union Budget.