'TMC exit may empower UPA to move ahead with reforms'

Mamata Banerjee has pulled out of the UPA. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Shekhar Gupta, editor in chief, The Indian Express says Mamata’s departure is a resolution. "With her presence in the government, absolutely nothing was happening. The few good people, who want to do a few things right, will have some time and some space," he adds.

Below is the edited transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee. Q: What do you think is the most likely resolution from the problem that’s cropped up in the last couple of days? A: I think Mamata’s departure itself is a resolution. With her presence in the government, absolutely nothing was happening. Even the most minor, innocent steps were being blocked including minor things like allowing foreign airlines to invest in civil aviation. I think she had become a kind of a factor that blocked everything. So, rather than have a government that couldn’t do anything, you now have a government, for as long as it lasts, doing something. Not that Congress party’s own impulse is greatly reformist or greatly pro-free market, but atleast they will do a few things right. The few good people, who want to do a few things right, will have some time and some space. I don’t see it as a very worrying thing. I think Mamata’s departure, following these steps, was inevitable. There is no way she could have stayed on and made adjustment with this, particularly after she had already made a big mistake over Presidential election. Q: Going forward, if the government does survive with support from the SP and the BSP from the outside, do you think constituents within the Congress would be leery of going ahead with any of these bold policy moves, given that their existence would be very tenuous and held by the small string of outside support? A: I think government will now go session by session. Usually, Government of India can only fall during a parliament session. So, it’s my belief that a lot of administrative stuff will now happen because government has decided to take some risks. These were obvious risks. Nobody is surprised by Mamata’s reaction. Infact it would have been a great surprise to everybody, if she decided to come back or if she had offered a compromise like saying come for 51% to 49% in FDI. I think she did offer something on fuel price kind of a compromise, but atleast a negotiating position. But, on retail, she was dead set. But if she had offered something, it would have been a big compromise. I think the idea is to try and run a minority government for as long as it can. Some of the biggest reforms in India have taken place in the minority governments or unstable governments. 1991 reform, Narsimha Rao’s government was a minority government, although politics then was not as divided as it is now and wasn’t as shrilled. Second, Chidambaram’s 1997 Budget, that Budget came from a government which had the LEFT, the CPI inside it. Infact if you now recall when Deve Gowda started this government, two CPI ministers were in the cabinet Indrajit Gupta Home and Chaturanan Mishra, Agriculture. It was that united front government that presented the dream Budget and also setup the disinvestment commission. Indian politics is a very strange business. When UPA II came into power, everybody expected a lot of reform thinking that now Congress party has 200 plus seats, Singh has got a second mandate, mood was upbeat. There was euphoria. But the government did not live up to it because there are many factors that play out in Indian politics. Sometimes uncertainty and lowering of a stake in government survival over the long-term gives people who want to get things done. I think Indian politics is very complicated. You can’t just say that because Mamata’s gone away and government is in minority by maybe 8-10, its sort of space for maneuver will be restricted because SP cannot do what BSP does. An early election may not do such harm to SP without helping it very much. If it goes from 21 to 40, it will make no difference to the cloud it has at center. In the last parliament, SP had almost twice as many seats as it does now, it wasn’t in the government. On the other hand, an early election can devastate the BSP. So, I think everybody will be now balancing these things. I think the party that has to think hard now is BJP. Where does it go from now? I think it’s peaked too soon in terms of the shrillness of its response and its campaign against the UPA. What does it do if the UPA falls now? The BJP hasn’t got its alliances in place. BJP hasn’t got its leadership in place. They have got elections in Gujarat coming up. So, I think everything is up in the air. In this confusion, I will not be surprised, if the government carries on atleast for two more parliament sessions, you don’t except many bills to pass. For complete interview, watch the videos.