Win in Gujarat not a precursor of Modi being future PM: FE

Sunil Jain, opinion editor, Financial Express believes Narendra Modi will get comfortable majority in Gujarat elections.

He told CNBC-TV18 that with the assumption of Modi's win in Gujarat, a series of assumptions have been building. "Assumptions are that after his win in Gujarat, he would take over the BJP throne and later in 2014, would become the Prime Minister of India. We would see the same efficiency in Delhi as we saw in Gujarat under his rule is another assumption." However, he says, it is a done deal that Modi would come in as the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate, but there is uncertainty on what the BJP's allies would do. "Although, according to BJP's calculations, if the BJP is able to get a certain number of seats because of Modi, then a lot of the allies, who have gone away, will come back." Below is the edited transcript of his interview on CNBC-TV18 Q: Gujarat is an interesting one because all the pools seem to predict a huge win for Narendra Modi but the satta market in Gujarat has actually been going for Modi wining by a very tight margin, not even making it to 110. Which way do you think it is going to swing? A: I don’t trust the market so completely as you but I think Narendra Modi is going to get comfortable majority. Q: So what ramifications should the business community or the market take away if Modi wins comfortably today? A: There will be the usual knee-jerk reaction. Assuming that Modi wins, the way people expect him to win in Gujarat there are a series of assumptions. Assumptions are that since Modi has won in Gujarat, he will go to Delhi; he will take over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) throne. Then in 2014 the BJP is going to sweep the national elections, Modi is going to be the Prime Minister and we are going to have the kind of efficiency that we saw in Gujarat under him, getting replicated in Delhi. It is pretty much a done deal that Modi would come in as the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate but what that means in terms of BJPs allies, Nitish Kumar has made it very clear that he is not going to be there. I think Chandrababu Naidu would have a problem. So his acceptance within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which means the truncated NDA could be an issue. It is certainly true and this is BJP’s calculation that if the BJP is able to get a certain number of seats because of Modi then a lot of the allies who have gone away will come back. Either inside or with outside support like the kind of stuff the Samajwadi Party (SP) is doing.
 
But winning an election in 2014 is a long shot and there are lots of imponderables. There is the Aadhaar scheme that the government has just brought in, there is housing scheme and there are other such things. So it is too early to take any calls based on a possible victory of Narendra Modi. Nevertheless, you get bet that everybody is going to take that call.