Uttar Pradesh’s BJP rebels: Its Mandal vs Kamandal this elections

``Generally speaking, before any elections, two factors propel such political shifts; one, people are told they may not get tickets; two, there is a fear of being marginalised politically. Sometimes it is a combination of both the factors that works,” says Salil Misra, professor in History at the School of Liberal Studies, Ambedkar University, New Delhi.

In his view, the political situation in the Uttar Pradesh is completely polarised with the chief minister stating that the assembly election is a battle between `80 to 20’--without stating it explicitly, Yogi said it is a battle between 80 percent Hindus and 20 percent Muslims–in a crude analogy.

It is quite likely that some Other Backward Castes (OBCs) along with a few disenchanted elements are making their point, putting their cards on the table, aware that apart from all the song and dance, the polls are still several weeks away. Indian voters--notoriously-–are known to make up their minds in the last few days, and no one knows it better than those contesting elections.

What has given rise to the OBC muscle is the fact that ministers normally don’t quit before elections; rebels might leave, but not those holding high offices. In this case, they have. 

According to political insiders in Lucknow, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has altered the caste coalition a bit in the run up to the polls. More OBCs have joined the already dominant Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination, making it a formidable backward caste rainbow coalition, which is going to fetch them dividends.

‘Anger among Brahmins’

The interplay of castes during poll time forms a formidable pattern anywhere in India, but perhaps not to the extend that it does in UP.  Before the poll schedule was announced recently, ‘anger among Brahmins' against the Yogi Adityanath government was put forth as the biggest challenge for the BJP.

After the polls were announced, two OBC ministers resigned from the Adityanath government in two days setting into motion a ‘mutiny’ of some kind. Swami Prasad Maurya and Dara Singh Chauhan – and the rebel MLAs in tow–quit, levelling allegations that the Dalits, backward classes, unemployed youths, the farmers, and the small and medium traders were being neglected in Uttar Pradesh. The tone of the two resignation letters – right down to the font – were the same.

Akhilesh Yadav welcomed both the ‘rebels’ into his party with posts on Twitter. His welcoming tweets too were similar in messaging. Both spoke of `social justice’ – a shorthand for Mandal forces.

There is a move towards mandalisation. It’s a counter from the SP camp. Whether it works or not, remains to be seen, says Salil Mishra, a specialist who has worked on Modern Indian History with special focus on the Indian national movement, communal politics, Partition, politics of language, Hindi and Urdu, nationalism, and identity politics.

Where’s the report?

Almost three years after a report recommending sub-categorisation of OBC quota into three divisions was submitted to the Yogi Adityanath government, it has kept quiet, with one minister telling reporters that they were still examining the report.

Read also: Uttar Pradesh Fore-caste: Parties lock in strategies but OBC voters may hold the key

The SP has since then swung into action after it was `leaked’ that the report had proposed a limited quota for dominant castes such as Yadavs, Kurmis and Jats.

Clubbing together the Yadavs, who form the support base of the SP, with the Kurmis tilting towards the BJP  (Apna Dal led by Kurmi leader Anupriya Patel is allied to the ruling party) has put the ruling party in a quandary, compelling Akhilesh – who seems to be learning his ropes well – to try to throw the spanner in the works of pitting non-Yadav OBCs against the Yadavs.

The recent developments in Uttar Pradesh are an outcome of OBC politics, which is critical to the survival of parties. Uttar Pradesh at 56.3% has among the highest proportions of rural OBC households in India.

Tamil Nadu leads with 67.7%; and in five states — Bihar (58.1%), Telangana (57.4%), Kerala (55.2%), Karnataka (51.6%), Chhattisgarh (51.4%) — OBC households account for more than half of the rural households.

The data is attributed to the Situation Assessment of Agricultural Households and Land Holdings of Households in Rural India, 2019, a survey conducted by the National Statistical Office of the Ministry of Programme Implementation and Statistics, whose results were released in September 2021. It is available for the agricultural year 2018-19, which follows a July to June calendar. 

The Congress, which has been ousted from India’s most crucial political state, UP, since 1989, signaling its decline, is at least trying something new. Party in charge Priyanka Gandhi, who is traveling to the state, released their first list of 125 candidates of which tickets were given to no less than 50 women.

Says Salil Misra: ``This may be part of long-term tactics of trying to gain respectability and credibility among the `right’ thinking people. It may not bring immediate electoral benefits but might enhance the image of the Congress among the progressive sections of the population.” 

To be sure, therefore, things are happening in the poll bound Uttar Pradesh, which has the capacity to make or mar political careers.