NDA peaking in polls, must aim for more alliances: Sardesai

“The NDA is holding but its potential to grow further looks limited,” Sardesai said, but pointed out that given the gap between the two alliances – about a hundred seats – it looks clear a BJP-led coalition has the best shot at forming the next government.

The challenge now for the NDA would be to try and get more regional allies on board, he said. “The UPA’s best hope now is to prevent the NDA from rising further and create a situation where smaller parties become more and more important.”

Most opinion polls such as the CNN IBN tracker have predicted that the 10-year UPA rule is set to come to an end and that the NDA, led by Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, is expected to notch up around or more than 200 seats in the 543-seat Parliament.

The projected reversal is stunning for the Congress, whose own tally is seen dropping from 206 seats in the 2009 elections to 94-110 seats now, according to the tracker, while the BJP is expected to garner 193-213 seats, improving significantly from its 116-seat tally in 2009.

“The chances of NDA reaching the halfway mark [of 272 seats] look rather low,” Rajeeva Karandikar, director of the Chennai Mathematical Institute, who was involved in the CNN IBN seat projections, said.

But news such as the Vijaykanth-led DMDK, the main opposition party in Tamil Nadu, being in talks to forge an alliance with the BJP should work well for the NDA, he added.

“The NDA has to piggyback on getting the right alliances,” he said. “Remember in 2004, the BJP’s loss was as much about not improving its own seat tally as it was about its allies doing poorly.”