M Gautham Machaiah
Will the much-discussed Lingayat controversy in poll-bound Karnataka assume the form of a tsunami and demolish all that comes its way or fizzle out as the election date nears?
First, what is the issue all about? To cut a long story short, Lingayats are the followers of the 12th century social reformer Basavanna who led a movement against the exploitative and oppressive practices prevalent in the Hindu religion. A section of Lingayats have for long been demanding a separate religion tag on various grounds, the prominent one being that they cannot be part of the same Hindu system whose practices they oppose.
The movement was marked by mass protests that began in Karnataka and spread to Telangana and Maharashtra, and prominent seers set a deadline of December 2017 to confer minority status on Lingayats. A committee headed by a retired judge set up to study the demand submitted a favourable report and with elections round the corner, the Siddaramaiah government lost no time in recognising Lingayats as minorities, subject to central approval.
Ever since, a heated debate is raging across the state on the implications of this decision and which political party could benefit from it.
Argument 1: The Lingayats who are traditionally BJP loyalists will now vote en masse for the Congress for meeting their long-pending demand.
Argument 2: Both the Lingayats and Hindus at large will vote in favour of BJP and against Siddaramaiah for dividing their religion.
Neither coffee-table argument finds much resonance at the ground level where the realities are completely different. The government’s decision is certain to impact the voting pattern of Lingayats, but to say they will vote like a herd one way or the other would be a bit far-fetched.
And even if they do, it would not exactly lead to a tsunami because the Lingayat population is pegged at 17 per cent and is confined to only certain pockets of the state. The caste census conducted by the Karnataka government, which has not been officially released, supposedly puts the figure at a much lower 9.8 per cent, with the scheduled castes forming the largest chunk of 18 per cent of the population.
A single thread does not run through all Lingayats as the community comprises about 90 sub-sects. Each of these sub-sects are governed by powerful heads of religious mutts whose writ runs large over the voters. For instance, if there are two Lingayats contesting from the same constituency, the people are most likely to vote for the candidate from their respective sub-sect and not be driven by any issue.
With the increase in literacy and awareness levels, there is every chance that the electorate, especially the youth, will not be swayed by religious issues and would evaluate candidates on individual merit. Various other factors like political ideology, development and local dynamics will also play a key role in influencing voters, not to mention money power.
As of now, all arguments are purely presumptuous based on which side of the political spectrum one views the subject from. The voter has not yet spoken his mind and how the Lingayat issue pans out will be revealed only on May 15, the day of results. Until then, political parties can count their chickens with little idea of how they will hatch.
(The author is a political commentator and a senior journalist)
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