With the conclusion of the final phase of polling on June 1, political pundits, citizenry and of course the political class will turn their attention to exit polls. Exit polls, over the years, have been reasonably successful in gauging the mood of the electorate and thereby offer a near-accurate reading of the electoral outcome before the official declaration by the Election Commission.
But have exit polls always been accurate? Not always, exit polls, often a subject of intense scrutiny and discussion, may not always accurately forecast the final results.
History provides us with instances where these predictions have diverged significantly from the actual numbers.
A notable case is the 2004 Lok Sabha elections when, despite exit polls favoring the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government with a majority, the final outcome surprised everyone.
2004 Lok Sabha polls: In the 2004 elections, buoyed by victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan state elections, the ruling BJP, under the 'India Shining' banner, sought early re-election. Exit polls projected over 240 to 250 seats for the BJP-led NDA, but when the actual results arrived, the numbers were starkly opposite.
Delhi Assembly Polls 2015: Similarly, in the Delhi Assembly Elections of 2015, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) secured a commanding victory with 67 seats out of 70. Exit polls conducted on the voting day had anticipated a clear majority for AAP, but none foresaw such a sweeping verdict, with only one hinting at a tally exceeding 50 seats.
Bihar Assembly Polls 2015: The Bihar assembly elections of 2015 witnessed exit polls predicting a closely contested race. Despite forecasts of no clear majority for any alliance, the RJD-JDU-Congress coalition secured a resounding victory, with Lalu Prasad's RJD emerging as the single largest party.
UP Assembly polls 2017: In the UP Assembly Elections of 2017, conducted shortly after demonetization, exit polls envisioned a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh, with the BJP emerging as the largest party. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP astounded observers by winning over 300 seats, a considerable deviation from the anticipated outcome. The saffron party's triumph in 2017 marked a substantial increase from the 47 seats it secured in 2012.
2014 Lok Sabha Elections: Similarly, in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, while most exit polls foresaw a victory for the BJP-led NDA, none predicted an outright majority for the BJP. The final outcome saw the NDA achieving a substantial victory, well beyond 300 seats, with the BJP alone crossing the critical 272-mark. This stark contrast was unforeseen by the exit polls, and the Congress suffered a significant setback, securing only 44 seats.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
