Explained | What does controversial cleric Abbas Siddiqui’s poll plunge mean for Bengal?

The election is being watched with a great deal of interest. Will the BJP, which has been trying to make inroads in the state, deliver the knockout punch to chief minister Mamata Banerjee, who is looking to make it three-in-a-row? Can the CPI-M, which is staring at political oblivion, live to tell the tale? 

Siddiqui’s entry has only made the contest more interesting and probably more polarised, as debate rages over the CPI(M)-Congress’ decision to go with ISF.

Siddiqui largely draws support from among Khariji madrasas spread across districts adjoining Bangladesh. These religious schools, with their limited curriculum, offer little by way of career to their students. 

His extremist rhetoric has a ready audience among people who feel marginalised and have few economic avenues to improve their lot. The BJP’s expanding footprint in the state has only made them edgy. 

In a state where 30 percent of the voters are Muslim, how much difference can Siddiqui make? What does Siddiqui’s electoral plunge mean for his alliance partners as well as opponents in West Bengal? 

CPM-led Left Front

Jokes, memes, caricatures are on the Left Front. Ten years after Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress ended its 34-year-rule in West Bengal, the Left Front is struggling to stay relevant. Its decision to join hands with Siddiqui is being seen as a desperate attempt, abandoning its core secular ideology. 

The Left leaders say Siddiqui’s presence is yet another step towards strengthening non-BJP non-TMC secular forces but not many, including party apparatchiks, are buying it. The Left, which prides itself in championing gender issues and equality, will find it hard to explain Siddiqui’s sexist comments. 

The Left-Congress combine wants to be seen as the alliance representing the oppressed but Siddiqui’s presence has turned the debate into a whole new direction, with the Left being forced to defend its secular credentials. Or is it?

The decision to go with Siddiqui seems to be a well-thought-out move. Muslim voters hold sway in more than 120 assembly seats. As many as 70 percent of Muslims voted for TMC in 2019 compared to 40 percent in 2014, Lokniti’s post-poll survey of the last general elections show. It was largely due to the Muslim votes that the TMC was able to increase its vote share to 43 percent and prevent a sweep by BJP. 

The Left-Congress combine, which is not just up against the TMC but also the BJP, will need a sizeable chunk of minority votes to make a contest of the assembly elections. 

Since his induction, the Siddiqui has refrained from his trademark controversial speeches but for how long?

Congress

Ideologically, Congress seems to be in flux. While Congress general secretary for Uttar Pradesh Priyanka Gandhi Vadra took holy dip at Sangam in Prayagraj on Mauni Amavasya and was seen wearing rudraksha recently, her party leaders in poll-bound states of Assam, Kerala, and West Bengal have been joining hands with Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF in Assam, IUML in Kerala and Siddiqui’s ISF in West Bengal. 

Siddiqui’s presence has not gone down well with many senior leaders, who have been calling for an overhaul of the Congress. West Bengal Congress’ chief AdhirRanjan Chowdhury got into a spat with former union minister Anand Sharma, when he questioned the wisdom of joining hands with ISF. 

At a time when BJP’s political Hindutva is gaining currency, Congress’ stance can at best be described as confused and at worst opportunistic—an outfit that will go to any length to grab power.

Will his popularity translate to votes?

That might not be the case, at least not yet. Siddiqui has some support but it is unlikely that his party will get enough seats to play kingmaker in case the state sees a tight contest.

Even in Furfura Sharif, chief cleric Twaha Siddiqui, who is Abbas’ uncle, is firmly behind Banerjee, who has made it a practice to visit the holy shrine with her head covered as a mark of respect. 

 Trinamool Congress 

The ruling party not only knows how important Muslim votes are but has also mastered the art of wooing them. the Left is taking a leaf out of Trinammol’s playbook in courting the community. 

TMC, on the other hand, has to walk a tight rope, lest it ends up polarising voters, which would be to the BJP’s advantage. Banerjee has to ensure that the party is seen as the only outfit that can stand up to BJP’s Hindutva but it also needs to ensure that the perceived minority appeasement is not seen as an anti-Hindu agenda by the majority community. 

So while Siddiqui has chosen the Left-Congress camp, Twaha Siddiqui has come out in support of TMC, which also enjoys the backing of several prominent clerics, including the imam of the famous Tipu Sultan mosque of Kolkata. 

BJP

Its accusation of Muslim appeasement against the Congress and the Left will ring louder now. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, around two-fifth of Left votes shifted to the BJP, the Lokniti’s post-poll survey said. The party is likely to gain Left votes as Siddiqui’s presence will further water down CPI-M’s secular credentials. The narrative that Hindus are in danger in Bengal will find more takers. 

AIMIM

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) now has competition. For AIMIM chief and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi, West Bengal was the next state to expand his party’s national presence and it was Siddiqui he was counting on. 

After the party’s decent performance in the Bihar assembly election, it was generally believed that AIMIM will do well in certain pockets of West Bengal. But Siddiqui, with his shrill rhetoric and right-wing politics, may have just made Owaisi’s task much more difficult.