It's official — Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will contest elections from Gorakhpur (Urban), ending months of speculation. Adityanath is currently a Member of the Legislative Council. Adityanath has held the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat for five terms from 1998 to 2017 before becoming chief minister.
The BJP has never lost this assembly seat since 1985, except 2002 when the Hindu Mahasabha candidate registered victory and later joined the BJP.
There were reports that Adityanath could contest from Ayodhya, to create a Hindutva fervour in UP. However, this speculation has been put to rest. This could have converted the election into a fiercely polarised one, which could have defeated the agenda of development and the ‘double engine ki sarkaar’.
What it also does is that it can be seen as an attempt by Adityanath to neutralise his Hindu icon image, and expand his support base. Contesting from Ayodhya would have cemented his position among hard core Hindutva backers, but alienated liberal Hindus elsewhere in India.
He has prime ministerial ambitions, and knows clearly well that in India the supreme leader is required to take all sections along.
Opposition leaders have ridiculed this move citing that Adityanath has chosen a safer seat. If he would have contested from Ayodhya (in the Awadh region), he would have faced the same criticism. Even in Ayodhya, Adityanath would have romped home easily.
Those calling it a safe seat forget that the BJP had lost the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat in March 2018 by-poll after Adityanath vacated the seat to become chief minister.
Strategy wise also this makes perfect sense. The BJP is facing pressure from the opposition in Purvanchal (east and north east UP) which has 142 seats, 35 percent of house strength, as per CSDS classification, and includes districts such as Varanasi, Gorakhpur, and Allahabad. The region has a considerable presence of the Samajwadi Party (SP), and the Bahujan Samaj Party. It also has a good population of lower OBCs.
In this region the BJP is facing tough competition. OP Rajbhar of the SBSP has left the BJP-led alliance and hopped on to the SP. The Rajbhar community is believed to account for 17-18 percent of the region's populace.
The Nishads have a similar presence in the region. Though the Nishad Party is in BJP fold, a section of the community is unhappy with the BJP for not fulfilling its promise of including them in the Scheduled Caste list.
Anupriya Patel of the Apna Dal, is facing rebellion at home, with her mother’s faction backing the SP. Under pressure from community members, she has been demanding a caste based/OBC census, which the BJP has so far rejected.
Of the three ministers who resigned recently from the BJP, two of them, Swami Prasad Maurya and Dara Singh Chauhan, both are MLAs from this region and hold influence in pockets in Purvanchal.
The innovative social engineering created by the BJP in 2017 of uniting the lower/non-Yadav OBCs under one banner, when the party received 58 percent support, is under threat.
Adityanath contesting from Gorakhpur will give the BJP cadre a shot in the arm. This decision is likely to rejuvenate the cadre, clear misconceptions, and motivate them to work for the victory of the party.
A senior leader/CM entering the fray has a cascading impact on the entire region as we have seen when Prime Minister Narendra Modi contested from Varanasi in the 2014 general elections.
The BJP is currently facing the maximum heat in West and East UP, which combined account for 60 percent of the house strength. West UP, the hotbed of farmers agitation led by the Jats, is likely to result in some losses for the party.
Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD alliance with the SP threatens to consolidate the Jat-Muslim vote bank, and negate the gains made by the BJP in 2017.
In addition to Gorakhpur, Adityanath should have also contested from Mathura in West UP to cover both the east and west flanks. However, the party has announced Shrikant Sharma from that seat.
As star campaigner, Adityanath needs to travel across the (EC rules permitting) to campaign for the party, and this may have weighed in the decision of not contesting from Mathura.
Contesting from Gorakhpur shows Adityanath has taken up the challenge to douse fire brewing in Purvanchal.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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