What will happen to the Madhya Pradesh Congress if Kamal Nath defects?

Given Kamal Nath’s background, there are many plausible reasons to believe that the Congress is no longer a preferred political outfit for him to stay on. For one, the Congress doors are shut for the 77-year-old stalwart to ascend further in the party than he had already achieved. He has, in fact, descended from being a member of the powerful inner coterie of the Grand Old Party to being just an MLA.

For another, he is still not out of the woods in legal troubles related to his alleged involvement in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots, despite his repeated claims of innocence. He may not be wrong in assuming that his safety lies in the company of the BJP as has been the case with many turncoat politicians who were similarly embroiled in legal wrangles.

Moreover, the businessman-politician only knows too well that his enormous business interests will be secure from the prying eyes of the CBI, ED and Income Tax if he aligns with the ruling party at the Centre.

But the most compelling reason appears to be filial. His son Nakul Nath, in his maiden electoral fight, had somehow managed to retain the father’s Chhindwara bastion in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, albeit with a considerably reduced margin.

The father-son duo has been watching with growing trepidation how the BJP is hellbent on storming the lone remaining Congress bastion of Chhindwara in the Hindi heartland.  The fact that all seven MLAs who won in the assembly segments of Chhindwara seat in the December 2023 MP election were from Congress is not reassuring enough for Nath junior to retain the seat. However, the double force of the BJP’s juggernaut and Kamal Nath’s personal popularity could be a sure guarantee for Nakul to easily sail through. Or, so Kamal Nath might have calculated.

Kamal Nath’s Depleted Political Capital

What will happen to the Madhya Pradesh Congress should its former president leave the party? If the general mood among the party workers over the speculations of his quitting is anything to go by, the Congress looks eager to celebrate rather than lament the possible exit of its most impervious and imperious state chief ever. There is a near consensus that the outcome of the December 2023 assembly election was more the rejection of Kamal Nath’s projection as chief minister than endorsement of Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The electorate had not bargained for a septuagenarian leader with ambivalent ideology as the face of change and, therefore, plumbed for the status quo represented by Chouhan yet again. Moreover, Kamal Nath’s almost peremptorily devised strategy to play up Hindutva card against the BJP severely damaged the Congress prospects.

After the poll debacle the Congress high command realised its folly of giving a carte blanche to Kamal Nath in the MP election. He was replaced with the youthful Jitu Patwari as PCC chief. Although Patwari is as deferential to Kamal Nath after assuming the office as he was before, the party organisation has quickly come out of the shadow of its former chief. Photographs of Kamal Nath are conspicuously missing from the Congress banners/posters and hoardings. The high command foiled Kamal Nath’s lobbying for Rajya Sabha ticket by nominating Ashok Singh, a Digvijaya Singh confidante from Gwalior.

The Congress doesn’t stand to lose much, should Kamal Nath leave the party with a few MLAs in tow. That will not alter the basic fact that it is the main opposition party in the assembly.

As far as the coming Lok Sabha election is concerned, it couldn’t get any worse for the party which had lost 28 out of 29 seats. If Nakul Nath stays in the Congress, he is sure to be re-nominated as the candidate from Chhindwara. If he opts to become BJP candidate, the Congress will have one more seat to fight for.

Unencumbered by Kamal Nath’s recent political failure, the state Congress has an opportunity to restore inner-party democracy in the organisation where ordinary workers can become enthusiastic stakeholders in shaping its future.