As the mega battle for Uttar Pradesh starts on February 10, with the first phase of voting for 58 of the 403 assembly seats, the big question is whether the Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath-driven Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s campaign for a second term in office is facing strong headwinds in what was its bastion until the last elections.
Issues such as unemployment caused by the economic slowdown and COVID-19, and the agricultural market reform laws, which the Narendra Modi-led Centre withdrew after a year-long protest by farmers, are seen as hurdles for the ruling party.
In the 2017 assembly polls, the BJP bagged 53 of these 58 seats, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) got two seats each. One seat went to the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). The BJP won 312 of the 403 seats across UP, polling in 40 percent of the votes.
Two years later, in the general elections, the BJP won 62 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats from UP, with a polling percentage of 50.
SP-RLD Combine
This time things seem to be slightly tough for the BJP in the districts where the first phase elections will be held, which include Shamli, Hapur, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, and Agra.
The SP-RLD alliance is what will be bothering the BJP in the region. While it is unlikely that the new-found friendship between SP leader Akhilesh Yadav and RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary will upset BJP in this predominantly Jat belt of western UP, the national party will have to break sweat to repeat the 2017 performance.
This is because the SP-RLD pact is an attempt to revive the old social bonhomie between the Jats and the Muslims, which has been scarred since the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots.
The BJP reaped electoral dividends in the 2014 and 2019 polls from this belt on account of this Jat-Muslim divide. However, the changing Jat-Muslim equation (after the farmer protests united the two groups) may work in the SP’s and the RLD’s favour.
In a bid to consolidate the social equation against the BJP, Yadav and Chaudhary took to joint campaigning to overcome internal bickering within their respective parties over ticket allocation. There is no doubt that they went all out to woo the Jat voters more than any other section. A sticking point, of course, was that the Jats were unhappy that Chaudhary allowed some SP leaders to fight the polls under the RLD symbol.
This was because Yadav thought that the Muslims would back SP candidates even if they contested on RLD tickets, while the entire Jat votes may not go to Muslim candidates on an SP ticket.
As a counter strategy, the BJP has fielded 18 Jat candidates.
Also, sensing an opportunity to woo the Jats back to their side on account of this bickering over Muslims belonging to SP contesting on RLD ticket, Union Home Minister Amit Shah approached some khaps, and even threw an invitation to Chaudhary to break the alliance with the SP. This backfired on the BJP when Chaudhary rebuffed the offer saying he was not a "chavani" (dim wit) to change sides.
Old Wounds
Since then, BJP leaders have sought to remind the people of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, which occurred during the SP regime. Shah did not mince words in saying that if the BJP was not elected back to power, then the "perpetrators" of the riots would succeed in forming the government.
Apart from focusing on the memories of the 2013 riots, both Shah and Adityanath, and even Modi have mentioned in their speeches the exodus of Hindus from the Kairana belt, again during the SP regime.
The BJP’s efforts have been to drive home that law and order could go for a toss if Yadav becomes the Chief Minister. Both Shah and Adityanath have asserted that the current BJP government in the state has ensured a riot-free atmosphere across UP while ensuring development, which has benefitted all social groups.
Development Plank
Adityanath rests his case for the BJP's return to power on the fact that his government has done a lot to improve the lives of the farmers and the poor. The current government reduced the backlog of dues to sugarcane growers of western UP from mill owners by creating escrow accounts, which ensured that they were paid first.
The BJP's hope is that the newly-created ‘labarthis’ (beneficiaries) of various programmes including direct cash transfers would help Adityanath come back to power.
Whether it is houses for the poor, electricity connections, piped water supply, and toilets, the BJP government's track record in delivering is better than the SP’s record while it was in power.
Besides, the BJP has a strong organisational base that does booth-level management to get its supporters to come to vote. This is something that the SP finds difficult to emulate.
Where does the BSP stand in this maze of electoral uncertainties? There are pockets of strong Dalit influence in the belt. As a late entrant this time, BSP leader Mayawati has sought to woo various communities through ticket distribution. If the BSP succeeds in preventing the Dalit votes from fully going to the BJP, the national party could lose some previously held seats.
Shekhar Iyer is former senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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