Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the founder and director of Ayan Analytics which has developed ZodiacAnalyst. It is a research software, with time and price charting tools, and it is exclusively used along with technical support.
How does TimeMap work, or do planets influence humans? Is it scientific? Is it logical?
Instead of wasting time proving whether it works, let’s look at it as the data set that is scientific, mathematically calculatable, and authentic, as humans cannot manipulate it. Astronomy or NASA has all the data on planet positions from the last 5,000 years to forward 5,000 years. The USP of TimeMap is that the data used is authentic, clean, and verifiable. The data set has past and future data, and the usefulness of the data is more because it is repetitive.
It can be compared with daily volatility and the Nifty data as the price movement is the response given by the investors, traders, and various investment structures, such as ETFs, insurance companies, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Collective consciousness also has a pattern, and finally, we are simply doing a comparative analysis and presenting it.
Last week, index movement in the markets was illusive, and the volatility in the stock prices was hurting the investors and even the traders. On a weekly close basis, Nifty was just a half percent down, the private banks' sector was down almost 2 percent, and PSU banks gained more than 2 percent.
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The services sector gave a slight negative, and commodity was gained; many sector indices and cap indices have formed doji or equilibrium points on charts, indicating markets are gearing up for a reversal and corrective move in the coming few weeks. While the inflow of the funds is still very positive and would continue to support the markets from falling big or crashing, valuations would still catch up sooner or later. Interestingly, PSU still seems undervalued, and there is still decent space for the upside.
Technical: We have been cautious and partially bearish on Nifty. For the past nine weeks, it is moving in 1000 points, about 5 percent, with bouts of rise and fall. On the other hand, as it happens, mid and small continued to give superb returns to the investors, especially those who held on and avoided trading.
Currently, on the Nifty chart, there is a nearby confirmed stop of weekly 20,970 and daily confirmed stop is at 21,130. On the upside, current targets are 22,375 and 22,760; unless daily or weekly stops are breached, remain long in the performing stocks.
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TimeMap - Many investors and traders must have observed since the past few days, that whenever markets went up, the portfolio of momentum stocks gave alternate bouts of rise and correction. Hence, as a portfolio holder, it was more or less the same or harmful for most investors, funds, and even the swing traders.
Markets do not reward when the TIME does not favour wealth creation or appreciation. Indian equity markets are entering the phase of slow wealth erosion and destruction, and this is more dangerous. Steep falls hurt but do not exhaust the participants emotionally. The current phase of the market is like a slow poison, it will keep sucking the earned profits from the investor’s existing portfolio. Ultimately, on one fine day, the convergence of emotions leads to panic and the cascading fall, and investors find themselves in a situation of regretting of not booking the profits.
We will be slightly more negatively biased in the upcoming week, especially in first three days of the week, and an oversized directional move cannot be ruled out. Avoid contrarian ideas and remain a good trend follower.
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From February 10th to 18th there are a series of aspects of planets, which indicate wealth destruction and loss of life due to natural disasters. We have been extremely careful about the past few days, but holding the positions, as we were waiting for the confirmations on charts. In the last week, many charts have confirmed the corrective move in the coming few weeks.
Midcap and smallcap showing big negativity and reducing overall market exposure is advised. Above mentioned stops in case gets broken - active exit strategy is suggested.
We move to our weekly section.
February 12, 2024: Monday: S.3-17.54/S.4: P. Bhadrapada: Auspicious day
Tithi gives wide movement, observe price movement from 10.45 to 12.30, in whichever direction the markets moves, it will continue in the same direction till tomorrow. The volatility would be more than normal, and volume spike cannot be ruled out.
February 13, 2024: Tuesday: S.4: U. Bhadrapada: Bearish Day
Tithi and Day combination has bearish influence on the participants. External factor could hit the sentiment in the markets, and ideally - it could turn out to be very important day for the chartist and technical analyst. Tithi 4 is deceptive by nature, and lot of misleading signals get triggered on the charts. Towards the end of the day, oversold reversal could give best BTST trades.
Panic selling in technology post lunch is great possibility, and it will cascade to other sectors. Big negative closing is expected.
February 14, 2024: Wednesday: S.5: Revati: Auspicious day
Nakshatra revati gives nice reversal on concept stocks, and media sector. Our backtested observation suggest contrarian strategy will give nice intraday trading opportunity. A good day to initiate SIP in various funds, whatever way.
February 15, 2024: Thursday: S.6: Ashwini: Volatile day
Tithi 6, give nice corrective rallies, negative stocks of the past 3 days can be looked for a Buy side trade, while positive stocks can be sold. Tech space might put pressure, look for investment in automobile space, two-wheeler stocks, reality sector and lastly the power sector.
February 16, 2024: Friday: S.7: Bharani: Bullish Day
Tithi gives momentum & Nakshatra has been generally bullish. Nakshatra Bharani is good for selling or profit booking, it is often observed because it is good for selling, the prices tend to rise giving opportunity to exit from the trapped position, few nice pull back trades can be initiated.
Weekly day wise notes are for the traders and SIP investors. Our overall observation and broadly looking at the weekly chart position and the celestial bodies, it looks like fate of next 45 to 90 days will be decided in the current week, do not underestimate the signals. It would be prudent not to against the major signals.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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