Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s potential is limited by a web of terror

CPEC puts a target on the back of Chinese nationals

Beijing unveiled the CPEC in 2015 as part of the ambitious BRI (Belt and Road Initiative ) and the objective is to link the Xinjiang  province in south-western China to the Arabian sea through the port of Gwadar in Balochistan.

Baloch separatists who have long chafed under the Pakistan army jackboot and the exploitation of the province's natural  resources by the dominant Punjab province have resented the CPEC and its inequitable template. Consequently, the BLA has targeted the CPEC and Chinese nationals and there were two major attacks: one in 2018 ( Chinese consulate in Karachi ) and  the other in 2021 (a suicide attack  that targeted the Chinese ambassador in Quetta) and BLA attacks in the province have been increasing. In August this year, more than 70 people were killed in BLA attacks – though this did not include any Chinese nationals.

Chinese assets in other parts of Pakistan that house CPEC projects have also been attacked. In March this year a suicide bomber attacked a  convoy of Chinese engineers working on a dam in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in the northwest of the country  killing five Chinese nationals.

Pakistan’s unable to protect Chinese investments

If the connectivity from Xinjiang to Gwadar as envisioned in the CPEC is to be realized – the terror challenge posed by the BLA and other affiliates will have to be dealt with  effectively and ethically.   On current evidence, it is clear that the Pakistan government is unable to provide the kind of terror-free security and stability that China is seeking for its nationals and its investment in the CPEC and it will be instructive to see if China will get directly involved in supporting Pakistani security forces – the local police and the army.  Responsibility for ensuring the security of the  CPEC and related assets has been assigned to the 44  SSD (Special Services Division) of the Pakistan Army in Gwadar, currently headed by Major General  Adnan Sarwar Malik.

The Karachi attack comes in the run-up to the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) heads of government summit that is being held in Islamabad  (Oct 15-16)  and Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar will participate along with other SCO members.  Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang is also expected to attend and to avoid any untoward incident that will sully its reputation, the Pakistan government is seeking to curb the movement of Chinese nationals currently in the country, during the SCO summit, to ensure that there is no repetition of a Karachi attack. Countries reap what they sow….

This is a reflection of the parlous internal security situation in Pakistan and is a result of the decades long policies related to supporting terror groups that the Pakistani establishment has pursued over the years.  Foreign Minister Jaishankar  described this distillate in his UN General Assembly address (Sep 28) in New York as "Many countries get left behind due to circumstances beyond their control, but some make conscious choices with disastrous consequences. A premier example is our neighbour Pakistan.” He further added "Unfortunately, their misdeeds affect others as well, especially the neighbourhood. When this polity instils such fanaticism among its people, its GDP can only be measured in terms of radicalisation and its exports in the form of terrorism.” (emphasis added) Not just Pakistan, China too

This is a severe but accurate indictment of the challenge that Pakistan poses to the southern Asian neighbourhood and while India has been dealing with this form of state support to terrorism since the 1990’s – China is now experiencing this corrosive virus in a virulent manner. The paradox is that Beijing has extended uncritical support to Pakistan at the UN, thwarting India’s attempts to evolve a regional consensus on identifying and constraining terror group leaders.

The SCO was created in 2001 under Chinese aegis and one of its objectives is "to strive for cooperation between the members to confront threats emanating from terrorism, extremism, and separatism."

Hopefully the forthcoming SCO meeting in Islamabad will provide an opportunity for Beijing to objectively review its terror related policies and harmonize word with deed.

The text of the final document issued in Islamabad will provide some insight into this complex security challenge that the non-state entity, whether militant, separatist or terrorist, poses to the extended southern Asian region – and if a policy consensus can be evolved. The probability, alas, is low.