Mission 400+ In 2024: Five reasons why it isn’t ‘Mission Impossible’ for Modi

Those elections were held in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s assassination with voting delayed in Assam and Punjab by almost a year where Congress won another 10 seats.

While Mission 400+ looks difficult it is not impossible. Can Modi like Tom Cruise achieve this Mission Impossible?

Five Reasons Favouring BJP Achieving This Feat: 

1: Demoralised Congress Cadre, Leaders

The results are a shocker to Congress cadre and leaders across the nation and has demoralised their supporters. All the momentum created by Bharat Jodo Yatra is now lost. The party’s main plank (borrowed from Nitish Kumar) – the caste census – has miserably failed in reaping any gains for the party.

At the same time it fires up BJP’s well-oiled machinery to work extra hard and help the party score a hattrick so that their long term ideological goals are established.

2. Congress Can’t Beat BJP in 200 One-To-One Contests

The three North Indian states send 65 MPs to Parliament and BJP won 61 of these seats in 2019. Critics may argue BJP has peaked and this result can’t impact BJP’s 2024 push for 400 seats.

However the message is much bigger. The present outcome indicates that a similar pattern can be repeated in 2024 in the BJP vs Congress direct contests on 190 seats. This massive BJP victory shows that Congress is in disarray and isn’t projecting confidence to its supporters of its chances to defeat BJP in these one-to-one contests.

Regional parties of the INDIA bloc are now apprehensive about Congress’s ability to defeat BJP in its den. They have already accused the grand old party of being arrogant, and the absence of top regional guns had forced the postponement of the December 6 meeting.

Without winning these 190 seats it is very difficult for Congress or the India bloc to emerge victorious as the BJP enjoyed an average lead of almost 20 percentage points in these seats in 2019 with limited role for regional parties.

3. Opposition Could See Splits, Defections

Many MPs/leaders of Congress and regional parties are jittery about the opposition’s prospects in 2024. Some sitting MPs may cross over in the next four months, taking a practical approach to keep their careers afloat. Moreover, in seats where BJP doesn’t have winnable candidates, it has been putting up rival party leaders like in UP 2017.

Further, many regional parties are staring at a generational transition – JD(U), BJD, BRS, BSP, TMC – to name a few. The high command's choice of successor is likely to be thrust on these parties making sections of the young as well as old guard uncomfortable.

For example Pandian in Odisha, KTR in Telangana, Akash in BSP, Abhishek in TMC. In parties like JD(U) there is no clear succession and Nitish may even be planning to pass on his legacy to Tejashwi, which may not be accepted by JD(U) leaders. This bloc excluding TMC has 50-odd MPs.

BJP is a strong contender against all these parties and has a realistic chance to snatch their seats.

Then there are parties like Akali Dal where transition has happened but the new leadership (Sukhbir’s) doesn’t evoke confidence. NDA could even be broadened with the inclusion of non aligned parties like YSRCP. Expect more rebel leaders like Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar emerging in regional parties, breaking and taking along a good chunk of the party to BJP.

4. Mission 144 Tough Seats 

There are 144 seats which have been classified as tough by the BJP, where it hasn’t won in the past three polls. The party is laying special focus on these seats and has devised an overall as well as seat-by-seat strategy for these difficult seats with an aim to win at least some of them.

BJP hopes to sell the narrative that voters in these constituencies have missed the “vikas” bus in the last two polls and this is their chance to hop on to the Modi bandwagon for double-engine growth.

5. Modi All the Way 

The Modi factor is alive and kicking, showing no signs of slowing, proving wrong  those critics who felt the PM’s brand was approaching its decline stage. Any product has four stages in its life cycle - introduction, growth, maturity and decline.

Modi was the face of BJP in all these states where the party sought votes in his name. As per Axis My India exit poll, 14 percent of BJP voters backed the saffron party due to Modi in Telangana, 17 percent in Rajasthan and 7 percent in Madhya Pradesh.

In 2019, 1 of every 3 BJP voters and 1 of every 4 of BJP’s allies voters backed the NDA due to the Modi factor. As per C-Voter Mood of The Nation in August 2023, 44 percent of BJP’s supporters were likely to vote for it due to Modi.

Even the “impossible” is possible in politics and elections. Four months remain for the first phase of polling going by the 2019 schedule, many  things can change in between, but BJP is going to give its best shot, aiming to cast Modi’s name in history books.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.