Jalandhar Bypoll: A repeat of the Sangrur defeat will push Bhagwant Mann and AAP further to the backfoot

The absence of foresight and an eagerness to score brownie points thanks to a populist streak had led the newly elected government to withdraw security cover for many people, one of which led to the assassination of Sidhu Moose Wala. A troubled border with Pakistan and no paucity of internal saboteurs made such amateurishness a recipe for disaster.

Even when the Mann administration was able to capture Amritpal Singh with the assistance of the central government, AAP’s first instinct was to take political advantage of this arrest. The key leaders, including Bhagwant Mann and AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal, attempted to portray this as an exceptional accomplishment. The real issue, however, is why the Mann government failed to assume control of the situation from day one.

The 11 months since Moose Wala’s assassination on May 29 last year have dented Bhagwant Mann's credibility. This was also the period in which a non-entity like Amritpal emerged and took the state administration by surprise.

Local Discontent

Unlike Delhi, the AAP leadership in Punjab has been unable to establish a distinct model of governance. The primary issue is that the party has lacked a sustainable vision beyond Delhi. For instance, prior to the assembly election, Arvind Kejriwal promised that if the AAP comes to power, every woman over the age of 18 will receive Rs 1,000 in government aid.

But in the past year, the party has only discussed the plan and not taken any action. According to reports, the government of Mann did not even include the program in its budget for the current fiscal year. Not surprisingly, the people of Punjab are becoming increasingly dissatisfied. It is also widely perceived that Mann is completely dependent on Kejriwal and the Delhi leadership, which prevents the party from developing local capacity.

Despite becoming a national party, AAP has no Lok Sabha representatives and losing a Lok Sabha election in its backyard doesn’t speak well for the AAP's national ambitions. The 2022 AAP victory in Punjab was led by Arvind Kejriwal and not Mann. When the CM of Punjab ran the campaign for his own Lok Sabha seat, the party lost in Sangrur. The byelection in Jalandhar will reveal whether Mann has the capacity to lead AAP from the front in Punjab.

Importance Of Punjab

If Mann weakens, others could rise up in the party to challenge him. The Punjab unit of AAP is not a stranger to internal divisions. Many prominent AAP members departed the state unit in earlier years. But after the victory in 2022, the party has remained united.

In terms of its national ambitions, AAP has a realistic chance of winning only in Delhi and Punjab. Delhi has 7 Lok Sabha seats, and Punjab has 13. It is difficult for AAP to gain Lok Sabha seats in states such as Gujarat and Goa. Despite AAP's strength, the party has never won a single seat in Delhi. In Punjab, AAP won four seats in 2014, but only one seat in 2019.

The Jalandhar constituency has been a Congress stronghold, as the party has always won elections there. If AAP fails to win this election, the party has no option but to consider other options in Punjab and Delhi, including alliances.

But regardless of the Jalandhar outcome, this is an excellent opportunity for the AAP to gauge the sentiment of the people amid the escalating crisis. If Kejriwal and Mann learn from the electoral message, AAP will have enough time to reconfigure its strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Sayantan Ghosh is a columnist and Doctoral Research Scholar In Media & Politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.